Folks, I never would have imagined that the McDonnell-Deeds race would turn into such a blowout that you'd have Republicans running for HOD in NOVA jumping on the McDonnell bandwagon and specifically linking their opponents with Creigh Deeds. This has to be a new low for a statewide Democratic candidate that he is being used as an anchor against his own party in NOVA of all places.
Friday, October 30, 2009
It's Getting Lonely For Deeds On The Campaign Trail
Both Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds stopped in Roanoke this week and the contrast couldn't be more glaring. Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli and Mitt Romney were greeted by over 200 enthusiastic and fired up supporters. Creigh Deeds was greeted by about 70 people, half of whom were HS kids who had walked over from the City School as part of class.
Don't take my word for it, here are the Roanoke Times articles about each visit.
Article regarding Bob McDonnell's visit.
Article regarding Creigh Deeds' visit.
I'm almost starting to feel bad for Deeds...almost.
Don't take my word for it, here are the Roanoke Times articles about each visit.
Article regarding Bob McDonnell's visit.
Article regarding Creigh Deeds' visit.
I'm almost starting to feel bad for Deeds...almost.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Which Of Our Intoxicated Readers Nominated Us?
Our buddies over at Bearing Drift (one of the best political blogs in Virginia) have taken nominations for the "2009 Bearing Drift Web 2.0 Awards - The Berrys." Somehow I completely missed this.
Anyway, someone who was clearly intoxicated at the time, nominated this blog for "Best Campaign Blog." Making this slightly more comical, there were apparently only 2 blogs nominated.
So if you like this blog, head over there and vote for us. If you don't like this blog, head over there and vote for the VA GOP Caucus blog.
Click here to vote in all the categories. Just know that, if we win, I will be delivering a very powerful acceptance speech and thanking all the little people who made it all possible.
Anyway, someone who was clearly intoxicated at the time, nominated this blog for "Best Campaign Blog." Making this slightly more comical, there were apparently only 2 blogs nominated.
So if you like this blog, head over there and vote for us. If you don't like this blog, head over there and vote for the VA GOP Caucus blog.
Click here to vote in all the categories. Just know that, if we win, I will be delivering a very powerful acceptance speech and thanking all the little people who made it all possible.
House Of Delegates Preview - 8th District (Part 3) - Prediction Time
Alright, I've wasted enough time and brain cells discussing the makeup and history of the 8th District. If you're a numbers geek like me, click here for Part 1 of my 8th District preview and here for Part 2 of the preview.
Let me start with a few words about Carter Turner's campaign. Carter has personally worked very hard and he should be commended for that. He hasn't worked as hard as Morgan but no one will ever outwork Morgan. Carter has also spent a lot of money. Check out his numbers and remember that he only declared his candidacy 3 months ago. On a month to month basis, Carter is actually spending more money in the 8th than Morgan.
With the niceties done, here are the problems.
Ultimately, I think Bob McDonnell gets about 56% in Virginia which means he'll break 60% in the 8th. The worst a statewide R has done in recent memory is +5 against his statewide total. That puts McDonnell at 61% which I think is about right. Based on all of this, I predict...
Morgan Griffith wins 62%-38%
Let me start with a few words about Carter Turner's campaign. Carter has personally worked very hard and he should be commended for that. He hasn't worked as hard as Morgan but no one will ever outwork Morgan. Carter has also spent a lot of money. Check out his numbers and remember that he only declared his candidacy 3 months ago. On a month to month basis, Carter is actually spending more money in the 8th than Morgan.
With the niceties done, here are the problems.
- First, no Democrat is going to win the 8th as currently configured.
- Second, no Democrat will ever beat Morgan.
- Third, Carter picked a terrible message. There are ways to soften Morgan up but "not for sale" was the wrong horse. Same thing I told Sam Rasoul when he essentially used that theme last year. Maybe if Carter had a better staff or more experience his message would have been better.
- Fourth, this is a terrible year to be a Democrat.
- Fifth, Carter ticked off a lot of Salemites (can't speak to those in the County) with the nastiness of his message and some of the tactics of his supporters (he should really have a long talk with his sign lady who I won't name so as not to embarrass her).
Ultimately, I think Bob McDonnell gets about 56% in Virginia which means he'll break 60% in the 8th. The worst a statewide R has done in recent memory is +5 against his statewide total. That puts McDonnell at 61% which I think is about right. Based on all of this, I predict...
Morgan Griffith wins 62%-38%
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Carter Turner And Gwen Mason Go Negative And Try To Hide It
Gwen Mason is now on the air with a negative TV commercial and Carter Turner is on the radio with a negative piece. The fact that they'd go negative is not surprising or overly problematic. They're both losing by between 20 and 30 points so this is pretty much campaign 101. Content is garbage but that's to be expected from these two.
The real issue is why they aren't posting their pieces on their websites. They both have pages on their websites where they've posted their TV and radio ads. Conspicuous by their absence, however, are their negative hit pieces. Maybe they're embarrassed? Maybe they know the content is garbage? Maybe they don't want to look desperate? I have no idea why they're hiding them. You'd think they'd want them as widely circulated as possible.
I'll make an offer to each campaign - if you're willing to stand by the negative stuff you're putting out, email them to me in postable form and I'll put them right up here on our blog. Surely that's an offer you can't refuse.
The real issue is why they aren't posting their pieces on their websites. They both have pages on their websites where they've posted their TV and radio ads. Conspicuous by their absence, however, are their negative hit pieces. Maybe they're embarrassed? Maybe they know the content is garbage? Maybe they don't want to look desperate? I have no idea why they're hiding them. You'd think they'd want them as widely circulated as possible.
I'll make an offer to each campaign - if you're willing to stand by the negative stuff you're putting out, email them to me in postable form and I'll put them right up here on our blog. Surely that's an offer you can't refuse.
Historial Statewide Winner Numbers
Most people I talk to don't seem to realize how rare a statewide blowout is in Virginia. I've gone back and looked at the numbers and it really is amazing how close Virginia statewide election usually are. Below are the names of the statewide winners and their percentage of the vote.
2008
Obama - 53%
M. Warner - 65%
2006
Webb - 50%
2005
Kaine - 52%
Bolling - 50%
McDonnell - 50%
2004
Bush - 54%
2002
J. Warner - unopposed
2001
M. Warner - 52
Kaine - 50
Kilgore - 60
2000
Bush - 53
Allen - 52
1997
Gilmore - 56
Hager - 50
Earley - 57
1996
Dole - 47
J. Warner - 52 (over M. Warner)
1993
Allen - 58
As you can see, it is extremely rare that anyone breaks 55. In 10 out of the last 17 contested statewide elections the winner has polled at 52 or below.
The 1993 election turned into a tidal wave election and Rs peaked in the 1997 election when Gilmore and Earley won big. However, since then, only Kilgore running against a badly outmanned Don McEatchin and Mark Warner running against everyone's favorite Jim Gilmore, have broken 55%.
This should give folks some historical perspective as they watch the unbelievable poll numbers we're seeing in this year's statewide races. If you just look at the top of the ticket races only 2 (Allen '93 and Gilmore '97) have had numbers anywhere close to what McDonnell is currently putting up. If the results next Tuesday reflect the current polling, Virginia politicos will be talking about the election of 2009 for years to come.
2008
Obama - 53%
M. Warner - 65%
2006
Webb - 50%
2005
Kaine - 52%
Bolling - 50%
McDonnell - 50%
2004
Bush - 54%
2002
J. Warner - unopposed
2001
M. Warner - 52
Kaine - 50
Kilgore - 60
2000
Bush - 53
Allen - 52
1997
Gilmore - 56
Hager - 50
Earley - 57
1996
Dole - 47
J. Warner - 52 (over M. Warner)
1993
Allen - 58
As you can see, it is extremely rare that anyone breaks 55. In 10 out of the last 17 contested statewide elections the winner has polled at 52 or below.
The 1993 election turned into a tidal wave election and Rs peaked in the 1997 election when Gilmore and Earley won big. However, since then, only Kilgore running against a badly outmanned Don McEatchin and Mark Warner running against everyone's favorite Jim Gilmore, have broken 55%.
This should give folks some historical perspective as they watch the unbelievable poll numbers we're seeing in this year's statewide races. If you just look at the top of the ticket races only 2 (Allen '93 and Gilmore '97) have had numbers anywhere close to what McDonnell is currently putting up. If the results next Tuesday reflect the current polling, Virginia politicos will be talking about the election of 2009 for years to come.
People Who Talk About Politics Should Learn To Read Polls Accurately
One of my pet peeves is people who quote polls but don't understand what the data actually means. Here's my biggest pet peeve.
A poll shows Candidate A with 53% and Candidate B with 47%. The margin of error is +/- 4%. Because Candidate A is up by 6, people say this means his lead is "outside the margin of error." This is wrong.
Margin of error does not apply to the gap between the candidates. Margin of error applies to the specific number each candidate is receiving. Let's apply that to the fake poll above.
There is 95% chance that Candidate A's number is between 49% and 57%. There is a 95% chance that Candidate B's number is between 43% and 51%. As you can see, within a single standard deviation, the poll shows that Candidate A could be as low as 49% and Candidate B could be as high as 51%. Meaning that Candidate B could win by as much as 2% and the poll would be "right" eventhough it showed Candidate A up by 6.
In this case, notwithstanding Candidate A's 6 point lead in a poll with a MOE of +/- 4%, his lead is not outside of the MOE.
Why does this matter? Jody Wagner is hyping an unreleased labor union poll that claims her race is a statistical dead heat. Let's just assume for a second that such a poll actually exists (something that is extremely unlikely since they won't release it). The poll likely has Bolling winning by 8 (54-46) with a MOE of +/- 4%. In that scenario, the candidates are in a technical statistical deadheat because the MOE could place them both at 50%. However, NO ONE would consider an 8 point race this late in the game to be a statistical dead heat.
Anyway, everyone from politicians to the media misstates the meaning of MOE and, therefore, misstates the relevance of polls. In Wagner's case, she very well may be in a statistical dead heat (although I doubt it) but she's still getting blown out.
A poll shows Candidate A with 53% and Candidate B with 47%. The margin of error is +/- 4%. Because Candidate A is up by 6, people say this means his lead is "outside the margin of error." This is wrong.
Margin of error does not apply to the gap between the candidates. Margin of error applies to the specific number each candidate is receiving. Let's apply that to the fake poll above.
There is 95% chance that Candidate A's number is between 49% and 57%. There is a 95% chance that Candidate B's number is between 43% and 51%. As you can see, within a single standard deviation, the poll shows that Candidate A could be as low as 49% and Candidate B could be as high as 51%. Meaning that Candidate B could win by as much as 2% and the poll would be "right" eventhough it showed Candidate A up by 6.
In this case, notwithstanding Candidate A's 6 point lead in a poll with a MOE of +/- 4%, his lead is not outside of the MOE.
Why does this matter? Jody Wagner is hyping an unreleased labor union poll that claims her race is a statistical dead heat. Let's just assume for a second that such a poll actually exists (something that is extremely unlikely since they won't release it). The poll likely has Bolling winning by 8 (54-46) with a MOE of +/- 4%. In that scenario, the candidates are in a technical statistical deadheat because the MOE could place them both at 50%. However, NO ONE would consider an 8 point race this late in the game to be a statistical dead heat.
Anyway, everyone from politicians to the media misstates the meaning of MOE and, therefore, misstates the relevance of polls. In Wagner's case, she very well may be in a statistical dead heat (although I doubt it) but she's still getting blown out.
House Of Delegates Preview - 8th District (Part 2)
I'm sure no one out there is interested in my multiple posts breaking down the 8th HOD District but it's my District, my blog and I feel like doing one more breakdown post before I post a number. Part 1 was a general background of the District. Part 2 will look into some more specifics and some history. Part 3 will include my actual prediction (tease - winning numbers in 8th, 11th, and 17th won't be very different). Part 4 will be posted after the election to dispell some of the myths the Dems will try to tell you about this race.
Anyway, as I said in Part 1, the 8th District is conservative, Republican and 30% Salem City and 70% Roanoke County.
Morgan Griffith has faced 2 Democratic challengers since redistricting gave us the current configuration (dropped Montgomery County and added more Roanoke County). In 2001, Griffth defeated Democrat Dana Martin 70%-30%. In 2003, he defeated Democrat Mark Emick 59%-41%.
Interestingly, while the Roanoke County portions of the 8th are more Republican than Salem, Morgan actually ran 3 points better in Salem than the County in both of these elections due to his deep ties to Salem. I'm not sure we'll see that again this year but we won't see the County run way ahead either.
The best recent election to get a feel for the district was last year's Presidential election. I don't mean to say these numbers are the most relevant predictors but they are good at putting the relative strength of precincts into perspective.
John McCain won 60%-39.9%. McCain won the County with 61%+ and won Salem with 58%. Amazingly, he won every single precinct in the entire District although 1 (South Number 1) was only carried by 1 vote.
Looking at the election precinct by precinct, it's almost impossible to see where Carter Turner makes any inroads.
Anyway, as I said in Part 1, the 8th District is conservative, Republican and 30% Salem City and 70% Roanoke County.
Morgan Griffith has faced 2 Democratic challengers since redistricting gave us the current configuration (dropped Montgomery County and added more Roanoke County). In 2001, Griffth defeated Democrat Dana Martin 70%-30%. In 2003, he defeated Democrat Mark Emick 59%-41%.
Interestingly, while the Roanoke County portions of the 8th are more Republican than Salem, Morgan actually ran 3 points better in Salem than the County in both of these elections due to his deep ties to Salem. I'm not sure we'll see that again this year but we won't see the County run way ahead either.
The best recent election to get a feel for the district was last year's Presidential election. I don't mean to say these numbers are the most relevant predictors but they are good at putting the relative strength of precincts into perspective.
John McCain won 60%-39.9%. McCain won the County with 61%+ and won Salem with 58%. Amazingly, he won every single precinct in the entire District although 1 (South Number 1) was only carried by 1 vote.
Looking at the election precinct by precinct, it's almost impossible to see where Carter Turner makes any inroads.
- He has zero presence in North and Southwest County and that's the bulk of the District.
- He's done better in Salem but that's not fertile ground to pick up votes with Morgan's 50+ years there.
- The one area he could theoretically run ahead of the generic D is the far west end of the County. However, this is a very Republican area, very pro-Morgan and unlikely to vote for a liberal Democrat. This part of the District gave almost 65% to McCain last year.
Ultimately, Morgan will get somewhere between the 59% he got in 2003 and the 70% he got in 2001. This is a Republican district and everyone knows Morgan. He's done a lot for the District and people understand the unique value of having the Majority Leader from such a small area.
It's too bad that Carter Turner was sold a bill of goods by a few rabid Ds and the Roanoke Times editorial board. I think he was actually led to believe that voters in the 8th disliked Morgan as much as Cabell Brand, Steve McGraw and some out of districts liberals do. The truth is that Morgan is loved by all but the most hardcore partisan Ds and that'll be shown once again next week.
Part 3 coming soon with my prediction.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Election Night - Let's Party!
Local Republicans will be holding a joint victory party Election Night (11/3/09). The fun will kick off right after the polls close at 7 pm and will continue well into the night (maybe morning if things go as predicted). It'll be at the Holiday Inn-Tanglewood and everyone is invited. We expect all our local Delegate candidates, Constitutional Officer candidates, local candidates, etc. to be in attendance.
Hope to see you there.
View Larger Map
Hope to see you there.
View Larger Map
2009 Election Predictions - Take 2
Two weeks ago I posted my "2009 Election Predictions (Subject To Change)" which, at the time, I called "premature." Well, I was right, they were premature and I'm about to exercise my right to change option.
Since I posted two weeks ago, we've seen surging R poll numbers, Deeds tanking in the Salem debate and disheartening his "progressive" base, a huge R money advantage and, according to pollsters, Democrats giving up. So here goes take 2.
Governor - Original projection - McDonnnell 52-48. I truly believed Dems would finally get engaged and close the gap. However, that simply hasn't happened. This race has turned into an absolute blow out. Deeds' awful campaign has made this post of mine look genius. Frankly, while my prediction below represents where I'd put the over/under, I'd take the over at this point.
New prediction - McDonnell 56-44
Lieutenant Governor - Original prediction - Bolling 54-46. Jody Wagner has gotten zero traction since my last prediction and performed very poorly at her the one LG Debate in Salem. Having said that, I'm starting to agree with some others that this may be the slot where the classic VA vote splitting occurs. I've always believed that would occur at the AG spot but I'm no longer convinced. The irony is that I predicted this as the biggest blowout but now it's the smallest margin. Still big but not as big as before.
New prediction - Bolling - 54.5-45.5
Attorney General - Original prediction - Cuccinelli 51-49. While Steve Shannon has a huge warchest left compared to Cuccinelli, I believe he has waited too long to spend his money. He's going to spend a million dollars in the next week but it will be dwarfed by the rest of the ads being run. To me, a better strategy would have been to use that money to create his own identity before the airwaves were completely saturated. Instead, he's gone completely unknown and he's running against an incredibly disciplined politician with huge grassroots support.
New prediction - Cuccinelli - 55-45
House of Delegates - Republican pickup of 4 seats. I'm going to stick with a net 4 seat pickup for the Rs but I think I'd take the over on this one. Point being that the Rs may not pickup more than 4 but there are now 10+ races in play, all of which could go R if the wave is big enough. There are only about 3 R seats still in play for the Ds and I think Rs ultimately lose only 1 of them.
Locally, Onzlee Ware will still win handily but his chances of breaking 65% are getting smaller and smaller. Bill Cleaveland could win by as much as 20% but I'm betting something along the lines of 58-42. Morgan will win by 20+ and I'll post that preview later this week.
Since I posted two weeks ago, we've seen surging R poll numbers, Deeds tanking in the Salem debate and disheartening his "progressive" base, a huge R money advantage and, according to pollsters, Democrats giving up. So here goes take 2.
Governor - Original projection - McDonnnell 52-48. I truly believed Dems would finally get engaged and close the gap. However, that simply hasn't happened. This race has turned into an absolute blow out. Deeds' awful campaign has made this post of mine look genius. Frankly, while my prediction below represents where I'd put the over/under, I'd take the over at this point.
New prediction - McDonnell 56-44
Lieutenant Governor - Original prediction - Bolling 54-46. Jody Wagner has gotten zero traction since my last prediction and performed very poorly at her the one LG Debate in Salem. Having said that, I'm starting to agree with some others that this may be the slot where the classic VA vote splitting occurs. I've always believed that would occur at the AG spot but I'm no longer convinced. The irony is that I predicted this as the biggest blowout but now it's the smallest margin. Still big but not as big as before.
New prediction - Bolling - 54.5-45.5
Attorney General - Original prediction - Cuccinelli 51-49. While Steve Shannon has a huge warchest left compared to Cuccinelli, I believe he has waited too long to spend his money. He's going to spend a million dollars in the next week but it will be dwarfed by the rest of the ads being run. To me, a better strategy would have been to use that money to create his own identity before the airwaves were completely saturated. Instead, he's gone completely unknown and he's running against an incredibly disciplined politician with huge grassroots support.
New prediction - Cuccinelli - 55-45
House of Delegates - Republican pickup of 4 seats. I'm going to stick with a net 4 seat pickup for the Rs but I think I'd take the over on this one. Point being that the Rs may not pickup more than 4 but there are now 10+ races in play, all of which could go R if the wave is big enough. There are only about 3 R seats still in play for the Ds and I think Rs ultimately lose only 1 of them.
Locally, Onzlee Ware will still win handily but his chances of breaking 65% are getting smaller and smaller. Bill Cleaveland could win by as much as 20% but I'm betting something along the lines of 58-42. Morgan will win by 20+ and I'll post that preview later this week.
Morgan Griffith Fundraiser - THIS THURSDAY
As we've discussed several times on this blog (here, here, here and here) Morgan has received incredible support from citizens, associations and companies. His opponent, in a desperate attempt to be relevant, has tried to make Morgan's support a negative. On a side note, notwithstanding his pledge to only take money from individuals, Morgan's opponent has now taken corporate donations and several union donations. Maybe "Not For Sale" wasn't a very good campaign slogan. Anyway, back to the point.
One last chance to support Morgan before next Tuesday's election. There will be fundraiser at the Shenandoah Club in downtown Roanoke. Thursday, October 29, 2009 from 6:00-7:30 p.m. Everyone is invited. See in the invitation below for more information.
One last chance to support Morgan before next Tuesday's election. There will be fundraiser at the Shenandoah Club in downtown Roanoke. Thursday, October 29, 2009 from 6:00-7:30 p.m. Everyone is invited. See in the invitation below for more information.
MORGAN GRIFFITH FUNDRAISER
OCTOBER 29, 2009 - 6:00-7:30 PM
SHENANDOAH CLUB, ROANOKE, VA
RSVP TO EMILY STEWART
Monday, October 26, 2009
Is Gwen Mason Lying To Her Donors?
I spoke to a few folks that have given to Gwen Mason recently and, therefore, show up on her financial report available today. These people gave to her after 10/1 and after her most recent internal poll showing her getting blown out by 20+ points.
I asked them why they were continuing to give to her campaign when it had turned into a blow out. They each came back with almost the exact response. They each said "what do you mean, Gwen told us she is winning."
I asked them if she'd told them about her internal poll taken this month that apparently shows her down 21 (caveat being that I haven't seen the poll personally but have confirmation from multiple of the best sources you can get about the numbers). They were STUNNED. While none of them said Gwen had directly quoted a number to them, they each said Gwen had led them to believe that her numbers showed her winning.
Typical political spin from a candidate? Probably. Still, if I were a Gwen Mason donor who had given her money this month based on her claiming she was winning and then I found out that she already knew she was getting blown out, I'm not sure I'd be too happy. But then again, I'm not a Gwen Mason donor so I'll let them decide if they care. The ones I talked to today sure did.
I asked them why they were continuing to give to her campaign when it had turned into a blow out. They each came back with almost the exact response. They each said "what do you mean, Gwen told us she is winning."
I asked them if she'd told them about her internal poll taken this month that apparently shows her down 21 (caveat being that I haven't seen the poll personally but have confirmation from multiple of the best sources you can get about the numbers). They were STUNNED. While none of them said Gwen had directly quoted a number to them, they each said Gwen had led them to believe that her numbers showed her winning.
Typical political spin from a candidate? Probably. Still, if I were a Gwen Mason donor who had given her money this month based on her claiming she was winning and then I found out that she already knew she was getting blown out, I'm not sure I'd be too happy. But then again, I'm not a Gwen Mason donor so I'll let them decide if they care. The ones I talked to today sure did.
New Bolling Commercial - "Steward"
Win or lose on 11/3 (and we all know it'll be win) it has been incredibly uplifting to have McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli representing us on the ticket. This commercial, when compared to the garbage from Jody Wagner, is just another example of why there is going to be a Republican sweep this year.
House Of Delegates Preview - 8th District (Part 1)
I intended to post a preview of the 8th HOD race last week at the same time I did the 11th and 17th. However, several factors have caused the delay, most significant of which has been the incredible movement of the statewide polling numbers in the Republicans' favor.
If you read my statewide prediction post (here) you see that I predicted the Republicans to win by between 2 and 8 points statewide. Since that prediction, it is looking more and more likely that the statewide races will finish as double digit victories for the Rs and this will obviously impact the Delegate races. As such, I'm may re-evaluate my numbers in the 11th and 17th (but not the winner) and am not going to post my number in the 8th today (you'll have to wait for Part 2). Instead, I'll briefly discuss the makeup of the District.
The 8th is thought of as a Salem District but it's really 30% Salem and 70% Roanoke County. The County portion includes precincts in North County, West County and Southwest County. The County portion is very Republican, conservative, middle class and white. The County precincts voted overwhelmingly for McCain as they do for almost all Republicans.
Frankly, the 8th is an R district mainly because of the County. Salem, while pretty conservative, is not a Republican jurisdiction per se. In fact, Tim Kaine, Mike Breiner and Mark Warner all won Salem. I usually tell people that Salemites will vote for the candidate that is viewed as more competent. Rs will do well in Salem this year but not nearly as well as they'll do in the County.
The voting history of the 8th is very similar to that of the 17th and is much less Republican than the 11th is Democratic. In non-Presidential elections, the Rs run between 5-9 points higher in the 8th than they do statewide. That number may be a little higher this year.
As a result, I see the R statewide candidates getting between 61-64. Putting that in context, no non-Presidential Republican candidate has gotten higher than 59% in recent years.
The summary is that things are looking better and better statewide and in the 8th for the Rs. All Rs will win big here, it's just a question of by how much. I'll post an actual number prediction for the 8th soon and will discuss the basis for my prediction in more detail.
If you read my statewide prediction post (here) you see that I predicted the Republicans to win by between 2 and 8 points statewide. Since that prediction, it is looking more and more likely that the statewide races will finish as double digit victories for the Rs and this will obviously impact the Delegate races. As such, I'm may re-evaluate my numbers in the 11th and 17th (but not the winner) and am not going to post my number in the 8th today (you'll have to wait for Part 2). Instead, I'll briefly discuss the makeup of the District.
The 8th is thought of as a Salem District but it's really 30% Salem and 70% Roanoke County. The County portion includes precincts in North County, West County and Southwest County. The County portion is very Republican, conservative, middle class and white. The County precincts voted overwhelmingly for McCain as they do for almost all Republicans.
Frankly, the 8th is an R district mainly because of the County. Salem, while pretty conservative, is not a Republican jurisdiction per se. In fact, Tim Kaine, Mike Breiner and Mark Warner all won Salem. I usually tell people that Salemites will vote for the candidate that is viewed as more competent. Rs will do well in Salem this year but not nearly as well as they'll do in the County.
The voting history of the 8th is very similar to that of the 17th and is much less Republican than the 11th is Democratic. In non-Presidential elections, the Rs run between 5-9 points higher in the 8th than they do statewide. That number may be a little higher this year.
As a result, I see the R statewide candidates getting between 61-64. Putting that in context, no non-Presidential Republican candidate has gotten higher than 59% in recent years.
The summary is that things are looking better and better statewide and in the 8th for the Rs. All Rs will win big here, it's just a question of by how much. I'll post an actual number prediction for the 8th soon and will discuss the basis for my prediction in more detail.
Quote of The Weekend
Fralin, who has represented the district since 2004, has a less partisan take: "I think the 17th District appreciates a workhorse, not a show horse."The Roanoke Times
Delegate Fralin has endorsed Bill Cleaveland
Friday, October 23, 2009
I figured it Out
After reading today's Roanoke Times endorsements of the Democrats I realized I was wrong. The common thread is not that the candidates are Dems it is that they are all willing to raise taxes. If a candidate wants the Times endorsement go in to meet with the editorial board and promise to raise taxes during a recession.
Happy Birthday Gwen
Today is Gwen Mason's 50th birthday, we here at Roanoke Valley Republicans would like to wish her a happy birthday. I hope she will take the day and spend it with her family and friends, maybe go out of town for the weekend and leave the cell phone behind.
Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli And Mitt Romney In Roanoke
As the momentum builds towards a Republican sweep of all 3 statewide offices as well as pickups in the House of Delegates, our team is redoubling its efforts and taking nothing for granted. Our entire team has remained disciplined and issues-focused while the Democrats are in disarray and beginning the blame game. HOWEVER, we're now in the homestretch and this is where elections are won and lost.
As part of our final push to victory, our statewide ticket will be joined by Governor Mitt Romney in events across the Commonwealth.
They'll be coming to Roanoke on October 28, 2009 at 3:00 p.m. The event will be at Landmark Aviation (private terminal) at the Roanoke airport. Address is 22 Waypoint Road. Map is below. Let's turn out in huge numbers to support our team as we head for victory.
View Larger Map
As part of our final push to victory, our statewide ticket will be joined by Governor Mitt Romney in events across the Commonwealth.
They'll be coming to Roanoke on October 28, 2009 at 3:00 p.m. The event will be at Landmark Aviation (private terminal) at the Roanoke airport. Address is 22 Waypoint Road. Map is below. Let's turn out in huge numbers to support our team as we head for victory.
View Larger Map
The Roanoke Times Stuns The World...
...and endorses 3 more Democrats for HOD. As we predicted yesterday, the Roanoke Times finished its HOD endorsements today. In total, the Times endorsed in 6 races. Bet you can't guess how many Dems they endorsed. Okay, I'll tell you. They endorsed in 6 races and endorsed 6 Dems.
Remember, this is the paper that endorsed Sam Rasoul. I'll ask again, is there another paper in VA that is more out of touch with its readers?
Endorsements of 3 statewide Dems are sure to drop Sun.
Remember, this is the paper that endorsed Sam Rasoul. I'll ask again, is there another paper in VA that is more out of touch with its readers?
Endorsements of 3 statewide Dems are sure to drop Sun.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Creigh Deeds On The Public Option
Well, this didn't take long. An ad has now hit NOVA regarding Creigh Deeds' bumbling of the public option question this week in Salem. Ad is below.
Here's my "real time" take from my Tweets at the debate.
Uh oh. Deeds' base isn't going to be happy about him coming out against public option. #vagovdebate6:43 PM Oct 20th from TwitterBerry
Deeds depresses his base more on cap and trade. I ask again, how did this guy win the nomination? #vagovdebate6:44 PM Oct 20th from TwitterBerry
So "progressives" how excited are you that your candidate is against cap and trade and public option? #vagovdebate #vagov6:46 PM Oct 20th from TwitterBerry
Here's my "real time" take from my Tweets at the debate.
Uh oh. Deeds' base isn't going to be happy about him coming out against public option. #vagovdebate6:43 PM Oct 20th from TwitterBerry
Deeds depresses his base more on cap and trade. I ask again, how did this guy win the nomination? #vagovdebate6:44 PM Oct 20th from TwitterBerry
So "progressives" how excited are you that your candidate is against cap and trade and public option? #vagovdebate #vagov6:46 PM Oct 20th from TwitterBerry
Roanoke Times Editorial Board Once Again Shows Bias
The Roanoke Times Editorial board has started their endorsement process. To nobody's surprise they are once again endorsing Democrats. For me they lost total credibility when they endorsed Sam Rasoul over Bob Goodlatte.
Readers don't be fooled they are not an independent source. The editorial board is made up of hard democrats and their endorsements follow suit.
Republican Candidates in this cycle- when you don't get their endorsement wear it proudly as a badge of honor.
Republican Candidates in the future- there is no point in meeting with the editorial board. The reporters I have found can be trusted to be fair for both sides of an issue so I would continue to engage them.
Update to add my (Greg) thoughts - It has been a given for months that the Roanoke Times would endorse Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner, Steve Shannon, Gwen Mason, Onzlee Ware and Carter Turner. Those first 3 will almost certainly drop this Sunday but they'll be the same old garbage - "Dems will raise taxes so we love them and the Republicans are cavemen." The only surprise so far is that Carter's endorsement wasn't in today's paper. Don't worry, I'm sure they'll drop it tomorrow.
Serious question to the Roanoke Times Editorial Board - Can you name a single other paper in the state that is more out of touch with its readers?
Readers don't be fooled they are not an independent source. The editorial board is made up of hard democrats and their endorsements follow suit.
Republican Candidates in this cycle- when you don't get their endorsement wear it proudly as a badge of honor.
Republican Candidates in the future- there is no point in meeting with the editorial board. The reporters I have found can be trusted to be fair for both sides of an issue so I would continue to engage them.
Update to add my (Greg) thoughts - It has been a given for months that the Roanoke Times would endorse Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner, Steve Shannon, Gwen Mason, Onzlee Ware and Carter Turner. Those first 3 will almost certainly drop this Sunday but they'll be the same old garbage - "Dems will raise taxes so we love them and the Republicans are cavemen." The only surprise so far is that Carter's endorsement wasn't in today's paper. Don't worry, I'm sure they'll drop it tomorrow.
Serious question to the Roanoke Times Editorial Board - Can you name a single other paper in the state that is more out of touch with its readers?
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
My Tweets From The Gov Debate
As with the LG Debate, I "live-tweeted" last night's Gubernatorial Debate. Rather than try to come up with some coherent analyis, I think I'll just let my Tweets speak for once again.
Based on last night's debate, I think I have to revise my statewide projections which will of course impact my HOD projections. More to comeabout 7 hours ago from TwitterBerry
McDonnell wins big. As the favorite, you just hold but Bob did more than that. Also Deeds killed his base. #vagovdebate #vagovabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke @vpaige Health care ? was directly a state question. Will you opt out of public option if states are given the option?about 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
So "progressives" how excited are you that your candidate is against cap and trade and public option? #vagovdebate #vagovabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Deeds depresses his base more on cap and trade. I ask again, how did this guy win the nomination? #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Uh oh. Deeds' base isn't going to be happy about him coming out against public option. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Good job making a relevant state question out of federal health care. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Contrast between these 2 guys is stunning. I'll let you each spin that comment however you'd like. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Most of the Salem City Council, Morgan Griffith, Bill Cleaveland, Ralph Smith all in attendance. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
By the way, nice to see both candidates' spouses here tonight. Bob's daughters here too. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
This debate is more lopsided than last night's. My party has had it's fair share of bad candidates in the past but Ds have it bad this yearabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
8 comprehensive plans for Deeds? These must be double secret plans that he'll tell us about later. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Seeing these 2 guys up close, you can see why it's turned into a blow out. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Being a great debater isn't mandatory for a pol but it helps. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jay should host every big debate. He doesn't allow the old political spin to go unchallenged. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
What is a nexus to transportation? #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
How can Deeds still not have an answer to the tax question? #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jay moderates a fun debate because he's tough.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
We hosted a debate earlier this year. Sound trouble is the biggest nightmare. Hopefully it's now fixed.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Do-over for openings. Will Deeds drop out a 2nd time? #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
For those of you who don't have sound...Deeds announced in his opening that he's dropping out of the race. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
SOUND IS TERRIBLE HERE.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Weird sound in the room. I'm betting the sound isn't great on TV.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
And we're off. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Starting in 2 minutes #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Both candidates prove they can count to 10 during soundcheck. Well done gentlemen.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Wow, based on the standing ovation for Bob I'd say the room is about 75-80% pro-McDonnell.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jay Warren giving introductions and begging people not to make noise tonight. Last night got a little out of hand.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Pretty much every candidate here besides Gwen Mason. Guess she has something better to do.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke How could you possibly think someone using SalemREPUBLICAN is biased?about 22 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Huge crowd here already for McDonnell. Couple of Deeds staffers but no supporters yet.about 22 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Based on last night's debate, I think I have to revise my statewide projections which will of course impact my HOD projections. More to comeabout 7 hours ago from TwitterBerry
McDonnell wins big. As the favorite, you just hold but Bob did more than that. Also Deeds killed his base. #vagovdebate #vagovabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke @vpaige Health care ? was directly a state question. Will you opt out of public option if states are given the option?about 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
So "progressives" how excited are you that your candidate is against cap and trade and public option? #vagovdebate #vagovabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Deeds depresses his base more on cap and trade. I ask again, how did this guy win the nomination? #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Uh oh. Deeds' base isn't going to be happy about him coming out against public option. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Good job making a relevant state question out of federal health care. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Contrast between these 2 guys is stunning. I'll let you each spin that comment however you'd like. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Most of the Salem City Council, Morgan Griffith, Bill Cleaveland, Ralph Smith all in attendance. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
By the way, nice to see both candidates' spouses here tonight. Bob's daughters here too. #vagovdebateabout 20 hours ago from TwitterBerry
This debate is more lopsided than last night's. My party has had it's fair share of bad candidates in the past but Ds have it bad this yearabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
8 comprehensive plans for Deeds? These must be double secret plans that he'll tell us about later. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Seeing these 2 guys up close, you can see why it's turned into a blow out. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Being a great debater isn't mandatory for a pol but it helps. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jay should host every big debate. He doesn't allow the old political spin to go unchallenged. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
What is a nexus to transportation? #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
How can Deeds still not have an answer to the tax question? #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jay moderates a fun debate because he's tough.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
We hosted a debate earlier this year. Sound trouble is the biggest nightmare. Hopefully it's now fixed.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Do-over for openings. Will Deeds drop out a 2nd time? #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
For those of you who don't have sound...Deeds announced in his opening that he's dropping out of the race. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
SOUND IS TERRIBLE HERE.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Weird sound in the room. I'm betting the sound isn't great on TV.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
And we're off. #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Starting in 2 minutes #vagovdebateabout 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Both candidates prove they can count to 10 during soundcheck. Well done gentlemen.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Wow, based on the standing ovation for Bob I'd say the room is about 75-80% pro-McDonnell.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jay Warren giving introductions and begging people not to make noise tonight. Last night got a little out of hand.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Pretty much every candidate here besides Gwen Mason. Guess she has something better to do.about 21 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke How could you possibly think someone using SalemREPUBLICAN is biased?about 22 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Huge crowd here already for McDonnell. Couple of Deeds staffers but no supporters yet.about 22 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Deeds Endorser Switches Endorsement To McDonnell
As I'm sure you all know, former State Senator Brandon Bell was one of a handful of former Republican legislators who endorsed Deeds early in this campaign. Having now watched the campaigns closely over the past months, Brandon has announced that he is switching his endorsement from Deeds to McDonnell. Click here to read the Washington Post piece and here to read the McDonnell press release.
I'll offer a few comments.
First, many of you read and commented on my post at the time Brandon made his original endorsement of Deeds. Because the tone of the comments got a little too aggressive towards people's families, I took it down. However, you all know I had some very strong words to say about Brandon and my thoughts on his endorsement.
Second, you should have questions about this switch. It would be very easy to view Brandon's actions as those of someone trying to jump on the winning horse for personal gain. Those thoughts are valid and appropriate.
Here's what I can offer. I spoke to Brandon before this was made public as he was wrestling with the decision. Brandon told me that he was disappointed in the tone of Deeds' campaign and he was disappointed at Deeds' willingness to accept the huge expansions of government we're seeing out of DC. Frankly, he wasn't seeing the Deeds he knew. On the flip side, he was impressed with McDonnell both substantively and stylistically and had simply come to the decision that McDonnell was the better man for the job.
So what's the punchline? Brandon had already endorsed Cuccinelli and Bolling so endorsing McDonnell isn't a big move from a policy standpoint. I think this is really just another symptom of the terrible campaign Deeds has run and the issues focused and disciplined campaign run by McDonnell. I don't get the impression from Brandon that he's trying to make himself relevant in Republican politics for another run in the future. Frankly, he sounds comfortable being "out of the game." Time will tell what role, if any, Brandon plays going forward but I for one am glad he's on board.
To the rest of you out there supporting Deeds, you're welcome to come on board too. We all know this election is now over. This gives all of you cover to reevaluate your choice. I know a lot of Deeds supporters in the room at the Debate last night were doing that very thing.
I'll offer a few comments.
First, many of you read and commented on my post at the time Brandon made his original endorsement of Deeds. Because the tone of the comments got a little too aggressive towards people's families, I took it down. However, you all know I had some very strong words to say about Brandon and my thoughts on his endorsement.
Second, you should have questions about this switch. It would be very easy to view Brandon's actions as those of someone trying to jump on the winning horse for personal gain. Those thoughts are valid and appropriate.
Here's what I can offer. I spoke to Brandon before this was made public as he was wrestling with the decision. Brandon told me that he was disappointed in the tone of Deeds' campaign and he was disappointed at Deeds' willingness to accept the huge expansions of government we're seeing out of DC. Frankly, he wasn't seeing the Deeds he knew. On the flip side, he was impressed with McDonnell both substantively and stylistically and had simply come to the decision that McDonnell was the better man for the job.
So what's the punchline? Brandon had already endorsed Cuccinelli and Bolling so endorsing McDonnell isn't a big move from a policy standpoint. I think this is really just another symptom of the terrible campaign Deeds has run and the issues focused and disciplined campaign run by McDonnell. I don't get the impression from Brandon that he's trying to make himself relevant in Republican politics for another run in the future. Frankly, he sounds comfortable being "out of the game." Time will tell what role, if any, Brandon plays going forward but I for one am glad he's on board.
To the rest of you out there supporting Deeds, you're welcome to come on board too. We all know this election is now over. This gives all of you cover to reevaluate your choice. I know a lot of Deeds supporters in the room at the Debate last night were doing that very thing.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
House Of Delegates Preview - 17th District
Folks, this should have been the fun one. As everyone is well aware, William Fralin retired this year opening up this seat to the surprise of many. After a 5-way primary, the Rs nominated Bill Cleaveland (lawyer and substitute judge) and the Ds nominated Gwen Mason (Roanoke City Councilwoman).
Many people perceive the 17th to be a Roanoke City seat but it simply is not. The District is 47% Roanoke County, 45% Roanoke City and 8% Botetourt. This means 55% of the District is NOT in Roanoke City.
The Roanoke City portion is mainly comprised of Southwest and South Roanoke. This part of the city is largely white, educated, middle and upper class. The County portions are largely Southwest County around to the East and up to Hollins. This portion of the County is fairly middle class and fairly conservative. The couple of Botetourt precincts are very conservative.
All in all this has been a +4-12 R District. Interestingly, in non-Presidential elections, it's +4-7 R. In Presidential elections, it's +10-12 R.
Many Ds assumed that this was a good pickup opportunity for them. However, there are several factors they didn't take into account.
1) This is a Republican District.
2) Gwen Mason's membership on the Roanoke City Council is viewed very negatively by a majority.
3) Gwen Mason, while working hard and raising money, has run a pretty weak campaign, culminating with what I believe is the worst political ad we've ever seen around here (and named worst ad of the year by NOVA D blogger Ben Tribbett).
4) Bill Cleaveland is well known and well respected.
5) Bill has been able to close the money gap.
Heading into the homestretch, Bill has more money, has matched Mason on TV and radio, has the support of William Fralin (still very popular) and doesn't have the stain of Roanoke City government on him. In addition, the strong tailwind behind all R candidates this year will strongly benefit Bill in this solidly R District.
While the early D polling had this race close, I'm told by reliable sources that both parties' internal polling shows this race as a blow out. While I have a hard time imagining a 20 point R win, I don't think it'll be a close race.
The R statewide ticket is going to run in the high 50s in the 17th and Mason has done nothing to make up that gap.
My prediction - Cleaveland (R) 56.5 - Mason (R) 43.5
Many people perceive the 17th to be a Roanoke City seat but it simply is not. The District is 47% Roanoke County, 45% Roanoke City and 8% Botetourt. This means 55% of the District is NOT in Roanoke City.
The Roanoke City portion is mainly comprised of Southwest and South Roanoke. This part of the city is largely white, educated, middle and upper class. The County portions are largely Southwest County around to the East and up to Hollins. This portion of the County is fairly middle class and fairly conservative. The couple of Botetourt precincts are very conservative.
All in all this has been a +4-12 R District. Interestingly, in non-Presidential elections, it's +4-7 R. In Presidential elections, it's +10-12 R.
Many Ds assumed that this was a good pickup opportunity for them. However, there are several factors they didn't take into account.
1) This is a Republican District.
2) Gwen Mason's membership on the Roanoke City Council is viewed very negatively by a majority.
3) Gwen Mason, while working hard and raising money, has run a pretty weak campaign, culminating with what I believe is the worst political ad we've ever seen around here (and named worst ad of the year by NOVA D blogger Ben Tribbett).
4) Bill Cleaveland is well known and well respected.
5) Bill has been able to close the money gap.
Heading into the homestretch, Bill has more money, has matched Mason on TV and radio, has the support of William Fralin (still very popular) and doesn't have the stain of Roanoke City government on him. In addition, the strong tailwind behind all R candidates this year will strongly benefit Bill in this solidly R District.
While the early D polling had this race close, I'm told by reliable sources that both parties' internal polling shows this race as a blow out. While I have a hard time imagining a 20 point R win, I don't think it'll be a close race.
The R statewide ticket is going to run in the high 50s in the 17th and Mason has done nothing to make up that gap.
My prediction - Cleaveland (R) 56.5 - Mason (R) 43.5
House Of Delegates Preview - 11th District
Rather than preview all of the Roanoke Valley races, I thought I'd take them one at a time. Today I'll start off with the 11th District currently held by Onzlee Ware (D) who is being challenged by Troy Bird (R).
The 11th District is 88% Roanoke City and 12% Roanoke County. The District includes all of the Northern portion of the City with a few precincts in Southwest and South Roanoke. The County precincts are in the Vinton area and out 460.
Let's be frank about this district. This is one of the most Democratic districts in the entire state. I almost fell out of my chair when I read the Roanoke Times preview and Onzlee said this was a 50/50 District. He must think he moved into another district. Since 2004, the 11th District has been +12-14 for the Ds in every election. This means that the statewide D ran 12-14 points ahead of his statewide numbers in the 11th.
Since 2004, Democratic statewide candidates have averaged 65% in the 11th (and this number is brought down by Kerry's 58%).
Onzlee has held the seat since 2003 and has only been challenged once (getting 62% against a well known Independent in 2007).
This year, Onzlee faces a Republican challenger, Troy Bird. Troy and his family have been active in the community for some time but this is his first time on the ballot. Troy has a great story to tell but he has lacked money and infrastructure. In total, he has raised less than $4,000 and a large chunk of that came from the Roanoke City Republican Committee.
Okay, now it's prediction time. In a normal year, I'd predict Onzlee breaking 70%. However, I think turnout in the 11th will be relatively low and the D statewide folks have generated zero interest here. I think Deeds will finish below 60% which is stunningly bad. Bird is also aided by the Sheriff and Commissioner of the Revenue races where Rs have fielded 2 very strong candidates.
Because of all of that, I think Onzlee will surprise a little on the low side. However, at the end of the day, it's a still a high 60% D district and Troy simply can't be expected to overcome it.
My prediction - Onzlee Ware (D) 65% - Troy Bird (R) 35%
The 11th District is 88% Roanoke City and 12% Roanoke County. The District includes all of the Northern portion of the City with a few precincts in Southwest and South Roanoke. The County precincts are in the Vinton area and out 460.
Let's be frank about this district. This is one of the most Democratic districts in the entire state. I almost fell out of my chair when I read the Roanoke Times preview and Onzlee said this was a 50/50 District. He must think he moved into another district. Since 2004, the 11th District has been +12-14 for the Ds in every election. This means that the statewide D ran 12-14 points ahead of his statewide numbers in the 11th.
Since 2004, Democratic statewide candidates have averaged 65% in the 11th (and this number is brought down by Kerry's 58%).
Onzlee has held the seat since 2003 and has only been challenged once (getting 62% against a well known Independent in 2007).
This year, Onzlee faces a Republican challenger, Troy Bird. Troy and his family have been active in the community for some time but this is his first time on the ballot. Troy has a great story to tell but he has lacked money and infrastructure. In total, he has raised less than $4,000 and a large chunk of that came from the Roanoke City Republican Committee.
Okay, now it's prediction time. In a normal year, I'd predict Onzlee breaking 70%. However, I think turnout in the 11th will be relatively low and the D statewide folks have generated zero interest here. I think Deeds will finish below 60% which is stunningly bad. Bird is also aided by the Sheriff and Commissioner of the Revenue races where Rs have fielded 2 very strong candidates.
Because of all of that, I think Onzlee will surprise a little on the low side. However, at the end of the day, it's a still a high 60% D district and Troy simply can't be expected to overcome it.
My prediction - Onzlee Ware (D) 65% - Troy Bird (R) 35%
My Tweets From The LG Debate
I was hoping to post some House of Delegates information today but it's looking like "one of those days." Too much work and the Gubernatorial Debate in Salem tonight. For those of you who don't use Twitter, below are my tweets in real time from last night's LG debate. They are in reverse chronological order. I'll probably do the same tonight at the Gubernatorial Debate so feel free to click the button to the right and follow my Twitter feed.
I agree with @notlarrysabato - http://bit.ly/h7ctQabout 12 hours ago from web
Wagner's supporters have stopped groaning at her and are now audibly laughing at her.about 14 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Energy has left the room. Time to wrap this thing up.about 14 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke HA HA HA HA HAabout 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Wow, Wagner's fans are now groaning about her answers.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
People won't like this but I'll say it...Jody Wagner has forever lowered the standard of what it takes to be a statewide nominee.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
And that's why you never waste time whining that "my opponent broke the rules." Rookie debater's mistake.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Governor's race turning into a blowout - http://tr.im/Cm3yabout 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
I'll be honest, I'm not a big fan of modern debates. That said, this one is more lively than most.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke CNU/WVEC/Virginia Pilot yearly poll. Considered one of the best. Deeds barely breaks 30%.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke I don't even know what that Tweet meant. By the way, what's your take on new poll showing McDonnell up 14?about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@jonbowerbank scoring by round. Problem is, Wagner lost by TKO 30 minutes ago.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
This is the second time Wagner has embarrassed herself in Salem. First was when no one showed to her meet and greet last month.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
I can't believe she's wasting her time harping about procedure. Her supporters in the room see her imploding and they're getting nervous.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
This must be Wagner's first debate. This performance is stunning.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jody Wagner attacks with distortions. Bill Bolling nails it on the comeback.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
New CNU poll shows Bob McDonnell up 14? This race is getting out of hand.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
One answer in and my question is - how in the world did Jody Wagner win the Dem primary?about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
The tone and content of the respective openings say all you need to know about these candidates.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Wow, Bill Bolling drilling Jody Wagner for her nonsense opening.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
The platform they have Wagner on is too tall so she has to bend over to take notes.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Follow @jonbowerbank and myself tonight for dueling LG Debate tweets. Just know mine are accurate and his are completely biased.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Off to LG Debate. Looking forward to welcoming all VA politicos to Salem for 2 debates in 2 days. Salem is the place to be.
I agree with @notlarrysabato - http://bit.ly/h7ctQabout 12 hours ago from web
Wagner's supporters have stopped groaning at her and are now audibly laughing at her.about 14 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Energy has left the room. Time to wrap this thing up.about 14 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke HA HA HA HA HAabout 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Wow, Wagner's fans are now groaning about her answers.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
People won't like this but I'll say it...Jody Wagner has forever lowered the standard of what it takes to be a statewide nominee.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
And that's why you never waste time whining that "my opponent broke the rules." Rookie debater's mistake.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Governor's race turning into a blowout - http://tr.im/Cm3yabout 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
I'll be honest, I'm not a big fan of modern debates. That said, this one is more lively than most.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke CNU/WVEC/Virginia Pilot yearly poll. Considered one of the best. Deeds barely breaks 30%.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@ValerieInRke I don't even know what that Tweet meant. By the way, what's your take on new poll showing McDonnell up 14?about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
@jonbowerbank scoring by round. Problem is, Wagner lost by TKO 30 minutes ago.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
This is the second time Wagner has embarrassed herself in Salem. First was when no one showed to her meet and greet last month.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
I can't believe she's wasting her time harping about procedure. Her supporters in the room see her imploding and they're getting nervous.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
This must be Wagner's first debate. This performance is stunning.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Jody Wagner attacks with distortions. Bill Bolling nails it on the comeback.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
New CNU poll shows Bob McDonnell up 14? This race is getting out of hand.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
One answer in and my question is - how in the world did Jody Wagner win the Dem primary?about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
The tone and content of the respective openings say all you need to know about these candidates.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Wow, Bill Bolling drilling Jody Wagner for her nonsense opening.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
The platform they have Wagner on is too tall so she has to bend over to take notes.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Follow @jonbowerbank and myself tonight for dueling LG Debate tweets. Just know mine are accurate and his are completely biased.about 15 hours ago from TwitterBerry
Off to LG Debate. Looking forward to welcoming all VA politicos to Salem for 2 debates in 2 days. Salem is the place to be.
Monday, October 19, 2009
The Truth About The LG Debate/VBA Rules Problem
You will hear lots of stories about what really happened. Most, if not all of them, will be untrue. Here is the truth.
The rules went through several versions during the debate negotiations. At one point, there was a stipulation that no materials other than a pad could be brought in. However, prior to the debate a final set was agreed to and signed by both campaigns.
THERE WERE NOT TWO SETS OF RULES. There was one set and IT DID NOT PRECLUDE BRINGING THINGS IN.
Here's where the problem came in. The Wagner campaign called one of the VBA organizers (after the rules were agreed to and signed) and asked to confirm that the campaigns couldn't bring things in. The organizer, remembering the provision from a prior version and not having them in front of him, said that was correct. Wagner, apparently relying on the conversation rather than the written and signed rules, believed she couldn't bring anything in.
That brings us to the debate. Wagner and Jay were both remembering an old provision. Bolling was right that the signed rules had no such provision.
The truth is there was one final version, signed by both campaigns and Bolling was right.
Now, for anyone who is interested in my real time take on the Debate from live in the studio, click here to read my Twitter feed.
The rules went through several versions during the debate negotiations. At one point, there was a stipulation that no materials other than a pad could be brought in. However, prior to the debate a final set was agreed to and signed by both campaigns.
THERE WERE NOT TWO SETS OF RULES. There was one set and IT DID NOT PRECLUDE BRINGING THINGS IN.
Here's where the problem came in. The Wagner campaign called one of the VBA organizers (after the rules were agreed to and signed) and asked to confirm that the campaigns couldn't bring things in. The organizer, remembering the provision from a prior version and not having them in front of him, said that was correct. Wagner, apparently relying on the conversation rather than the written and signed rules, believed she couldn't bring anything in.
That brings us to the debate. Wagner and Jay were both remembering an old provision. Bolling was right that the signed rules had no such provision.
The truth is there was one final version, signed by both campaigns and Bolling was right.
Now, for anyone who is interested in my real time take on the Debate from live in the studio, click here to read my Twitter feed.
Another Religion Professor Who Doesn't Live In The 8th For Carter Turner
Over the weekend I picked up the paper and saw a LTE supporting Carter Turner. Nothing new in the letter, just the same old "bought and sold" BS we've heard from Carter's campaign from day one.
What was interesting is that this is now at least the 2nd LTE on Carter's behalf written by a Religion Professor who does not live in the 8th District.
Now, am I saying there's something wrong with Religion Professors? Absolutely not. Heck, I was 1 class away from a Religion Minor in college. Am I saying there's something wrong with people who don't live in the 8th? Absolutely not.
What is interesting is that, on the ground in the 8th, it's clear that Carter's campaign has generated zero traction. His presence at events in weak, his fundraising in the District has been largely non-existence and, outside of a few hard Ds in Salem, you can hardly find one of his signs in the District.
I'm willing to go ahead and concede the "Religion Professors who don't live in the 8th" vote to Carter. I hope those folks are watching closely on election day though to see what the actual voters in the 8th think of Morgan Griffith and Carter Turner.
By the way, I know several Religion Professors who do live in the 8th. Guess who they're supporting? I'll give you a hint, his name is not Carter Turner.
I'll have my number projections soon.
What was interesting is that this is now at least the 2nd LTE on Carter's behalf written by a Religion Professor who does not live in the 8th District.
Now, am I saying there's something wrong with Religion Professors? Absolutely not. Heck, I was 1 class away from a Religion Minor in college. Am I saying there's something wrong with people who don't live in the 8th? Absolutely not.
What is interesting is that, on the ground in the 8th, it's clear that Carter's campaign has generated zero traction. His presence at events in weak, his fundraising in the District has been largely non-existence and, outside of a few hard Ds in Salem, you can hardly find one of his signs in the District.
I'm willing to go ahead and concede the "Religion Professors who don't live in the 8th" vote to Carter. I hope those folks are watching closely on election day though to see what the actual voters in the 8th think of Morgan Griffith and Carter Turner.
By the way, I know several Religion Professors who do live in the 8th. Guess who they're supporting? I'll give you a hint, his name is not Carter Turner.
I'll have my number projections soon.
Coming Soon - House Of Delegates Predictions
If you saw my "prediction post" last week, you saw that I put numbers on the statewide races and made general predictions about some House of Delegates races. Later this week (probably tomorrow) I'll be posting some number predictions about the House of Delegates races. Hopefully folks will chime in (especially those on the other side of the aisle who disagree with me) with their own predictions. Stay tuned.
Friday, October 16, 2009
How I Met Morgan Griffith
Lots of folks outside the 8th District who don't really know Morgan Griffith have a perception of him based on what the out of touch Roanoke Times editorial board says about him. Of course, within the 8th District, he's known, respected and beloved. It's why he always wins huge, has incredible support, was voted "top politician" in So Salem, etc. Anyway, I thought I'd offer a story about the first time I met Morgan that I think says a lot about him.
In 1993, I was a junior at Christiansburg High School. By some miracle, I was elected to serve as the Youth Governor of Virginia at the YMCA's Model General Assembly. If you're not familiar with the program, do a quick Google search. Great program involving thousands of Virginia high school kids from around the state.
Anyway, one of the things you do as Youth Governor is travel to Richmond during your senior year to meet the real Governor, legislators, etc. You also get introduced on the floor of the General Assembly.
At the time, Morgan's District covered part of Christiansburg but not my part. I met Morgan while in Richmond as well as Delegate Shuler (then my Delegate). Morgan knew I was not in his District.
Shortly after my trip to Richmond, I got a call that I was to attend the next Christiansburg Town Council meeting. So, I show up and it turns out I'm being presented with the "key to the city" (yeah yeah, I know, must be a tiny key, ha ha).
Morgan was there but he stood in the back the whole time, didn't push his way forward, get in any pictures, etc. I asked the Christiansburg folks who had instigated this and, to my surprise, they said it was Morgan (remember, I lived in Shuler's District).
Now, why is this telling? First, my family didn't live in Morgan's district and there was no reason to think we ever would. Second, Morgan didn't use this as an opportunity to get attention or credit.
I asked him why he had taken his time to arrange this and travel down from Salem when he got nothing out of it. His response was that he was proud to represent Christiansburg, proud of what I'd accomplished and proud to promote Christiansburg and its citizens. There was zero political benefit to him doing it and, frankly, it took a lot of his time.
As a high school kid from little old Christiansburg, this meant a lot to me. Over the years, I'd see Morgan around and he always remembered me, asked about my family by name and showed he cared. By complete coincidence, almost 15 years later I moved into Morgan's district and I've gotten to see him up close. I'm incredibly proud to say that nothing has changed. Morgan is the same humble guy that found time to throw a little attention to a silly CHS kid.
Morgan's opponent has accused Morgan of racketeering, selling his votes, being a bullying and lots of other nasty things. I'm amazed that Morgan just shrugs it off and doesn't respond. What I've learned is that after 2 decades of representing the 8th and over 5 decades of living in the 8th, Morgan doesn't have to stoop to that level. He knows what he means to this community and, thankfully, the citizens do too. Well, this is one citizen that is thankful for all Morgan has meant to this community and will be thrilled to vote in November to send him back to Richmond to fight for us once again.
Thanks Morgan.
In 1993, I was a junior at Christiansburg High School. By some miracle, I was elected to serve as the Youth Governor of Virginia at the YMCA's Model General Assembly. If you're not familiar with the program, do a quick Google search. Great program involving thousands of Virginia high school kids from around the state.
Anyway, one of the things you do as Youth Governor is travel to Richmond during your senior year to meet the real Governor, legislators, etc. You also get introduced on the floor of the General Assembly.
At the time, Morgan's District covered part of Christiansburg but not my part. I met Morgan while in Richmond as well as Delegate Shuler (then my Delegate). Morgan knew I was not in his District.
Shortly after my trip to Richmond, I got a call that I was to attend the next Christiansburg Town Council meeting. So, I show up and it turns out I'm being presented with the "key to the city" (yeah yeah, I know, must be a tiny key, ha ha).
Morgan was there but he stood in the back the whole time, didn't push his way forward, get in any pictures, etc. I asked the Christiansburg folks who had instigated this and, to my surprise, they said it was Morgan (remember, I lived in Shuler's District).
Now, why is this telling? First, my family didn't live in Morgan's district and there was no reason to think we ever would. Second, Morgan didn't use this as an opportunity to get attention or credit.
I asked him why he had taken his time to arrange this and travel down from Salem when he got nothing out of it. His response was that he was proud to represent Christiansburg, proud of what I'd accomplished and proud to promote Christiansburg and its citizens. There was zero political benefit to him doing it and, frankly, it took a lot of his time.
As a high school kid from little old Christiansburg, this meant a lot to me. Over the years, I'd see Morgan around and he always remembered me, asked about my family by name and showed he cared. By complete coincidence, almost 15 years later I moved into Morgan's district and I've gotten to see him up close. I'm incredibly proud to say that nothing has changed. Morgan is the same humble guy that found time to throw a little attention to a silly CHS kid.
Morgan's opponent has accused Morgan of racketeering, selling his votes, being a bullying and lots of other nasty things. I'm amazed that Morgan just shrugs it off and doesn't respond. What I've learned is that after 2 decades of representing the 8th and over 5 decades of living in the 8th, Morgan doesn't have to stoop to that level. He knows what he means to this community and, thankfully, the citizens do too. Well, this is one citizen that is thankful for all Morgan has meant to this community and will be thrilled to vote in November to send him back to Richmond to fight for us once again.
Thanks Morgan.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
National Labor Unions Double Down On Creigh Deeds
It's simply amazing when you realize that every single organization for job creators (NFIB, Chambers of Commerce, Farm Bureau, Realtors, etc. etc.) has endorsed Bob McDonnell and every national labor union fighting to overturn our right to work law has endorsed Creigh Deeds.
Well, now we get word that the Communications Workers of America ("CWA") are trying to flood Virginia with their members in an effort to save Creigh Deeds' floundering campaign.
Why? Because the Republican ticket doesn't support card check, doesn't support unionizing of public employees and wants to keep Virginia a Right to Work state.
When you hear people talk about Virginia being the best place to do business, know that these policies (along with low taxes and less regulation) are why Virginia has achieved this distinction.
This election is about JOBS and no matter what Creigh Deeds claims during this election, the fact that labor has doubled down on his candidacy tells you all you need to know about what kind of Governor he'd be. Thankfully, there's one guy in this race who gets it and that's Bob McDonnell, the next Governor of Virginia.
Well, now we get word that the Communications Workers of America ("CWA") are trying to flood Virginia with their members in an effort to save Creigh Deeds' floundering campaign.
Why? Because the Republican ticket doesn't support card check, doesn't support unionizing of public employees and wants to keep Virginia a Right to Work state.
When you hear people talk about Virginia being the best place to do business, know that these policies (along with low taxes and less regulation) are why Virginia has achieved this distinction.
This election is about JOBS and no matter what Creigh Deeds claims during this election, the fact that labor has doubled down on his candidacy tells you all you need to know about what kind of Governor he'd be. Thankfully, there's one guy in this race who gets it and that's Bob McDonnell, the next Governor of Virginia.
Walker for Commissioner Endorsed by formerly elected Democrats
In a press release yesterday Douglas Walker announced that both Bev Fitzpatrick and Brenda McDaniel have endorsed his campaign. Both formerly elected Democrats on City Council have worked with the current Commissioner and know that it is time for a change to honest and open leadership in the Commissioners Office.
Press Release:
Roanoke, VA, October 14, 2009: Douglas Walker announced today that two former members of Roanoke City Council are endorsing his bid for election as the City of Roanoke’s Commissioner of the Revenue.
“Brenda McDaniel and Bev Fitzpatrick both have endorsed my campaign,” stated Walker. “I am most grateful for their belief in me and my efforts to serve the citizens of Roanoke as their Commissioner.”
Fitzpatrick and McDaniel said as former members of council, they have a particular awareness of the need to have equity in the assessment of business and industry in the City of Roanoke and applaud Walker’s promise to conduct an audit of the Commissioner’s office.
They added, “An audit should be the cornerstone of any department taking the taxpayers’ funding. It is needed to ensure that each business in the city is treated equitably and that all are paying their appropriate tax obligations. We believe that Douglas Walker understands this. His promise to conduct an audit is refreshing and meets the standard of integrity we taxpayers should expect.”
Press Release:
Roanoke, VA, October 14, 2009: Douglas Walker announced today that two former members of Roanoke City Council are endorsing his bid for election as the City of Roanoke’s Commissioner of the Revenue.
“Brenda McDaniel and Bev Fitzpatrick both have endorsed my campaign,” stated Walker. “I am most grateful for their belief in me and my efforts to serve the citizens of Roanoke as their Commissioner.”
Fitzpatrick and McDaniel said as former members of council, they have a particular awareness of the need to have equity in the assessment of business and industry in the City of Roanoke and applaud Walker’s promise to conduct an audit of the Commissioner’s office.
They added, “An audit should be the cornerstone of any department taking the taxpayers’ funding. It is needed to ensure that each business in the city is treated equitably and that all are paying their appropriate tax obligations. We believe that Douglas Walker understands this. His promise to conduct an audit is refreshing and meets the standard of integrity we taxpayers should expect.”
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
2009 Election Predictions (Subject To Change)
We're still almost 3 weeks from election day which makes this way too early but what the heck, this stuff is fun. Thought I'd post some predictions with the caveat that things are very likely to change.
Governor - Things are looking great here for Bob McDonnell with polling anywhere from 7-11 points in his favor. However, I think a significant number of the undecideds are Dems who are not excited about Deeds but they'll ultimately come home and vote for him. McDonnell still wins but it'll be closer than current polling.
My premature prediction - McDonnell - 52-48
Lieutenant Governor - Contrary to what some Dem bloggers are saying, Bolling should win by the biggest margins of anyone. Race will tighten a little from where it is now but he'll win a big victory and start the Bolling '13 campaign on 11/4.
My premature prediction - Bolling - 54-46
Attorney General - This is the one that'll be really fun. Dems seem to view this race as their only hope and will be pouring everything into it over the next 3 weeks. It is a Dem nightmare to lose this seat as it is a huge blow today and a bigger blow to their bench going forward. With the inevitable tightening I think we see across the board plus the huge focus from Dems, this one ends up close.
My premature prediction - Cuccinelli - 51-49
HOD - Lots of wild predictions going on right now about a huge Republican sweep in the House of Delegates races. Frankly, I don't see it. Here's what I can say with certainly - no seats in the Roanoke area will change parties. Morgan Griffith wins huge, Bill Cleaveland wins by a surprising margin and Onzlee Ware wins in typical fashion. I'll post some number predictions on these races later.
I think the Dems are left with 1 pickup opportunity in the Western half of the state, 2 or 3 in NOVA and 1 in Hampton Roads. Republicans have as many as 5 shots in NOVA, 3 or 4 in HR and a couple more throughout the state.
My premature prediction - Republicans +4.
Like I said at the top. This was just for fun and a lot could change. Some of what I've posted is based on polling data I've seen, some of it is based on coversations I've had and some of it is complete wild unfounded speculation. Now, if you're a Republican reading this, get back to work. If you're a Democrat, feel free to sit on the couch and watch TV.
Governor - Things are looking great here for Bob McDonnell with polling anywhere from 7-11 points in his favor. However, I think a significant number of the undecideds are Dems who are not excited about Deeds but they'll ultimately come home and vote for him. McDonnell still wins but it'll be closer than current polling.
My premature prediction - McDonnell - 52-48
Lieutenant Governor - Contrary to what some Dem bloggers are saying, Bolling should win by the biggest margins of anyone. Race will tighten a little from where it is now but he'll win a big victory and start the Bolling '13 campaign on 11/4.
My premature prediction - Bolling - 54-46
Attorney General - This is the one that'll be really fun. Dems seem to view this race as their only hope and will be pouring everything into it over the next 3 weeks. It is a Dem nightmare to lose this seat as it is a huge blow today and a bigger blow to their bench going forward. With the inevitable tightening I think we see across the board plus the huge focus from Dems, this one ends up close.
My premature prediction - Cuccinelli - 51-49
HOD - Lots of wild predictions going on right now about a huge Republican sweep in the House of Delegates races. Frankly, I don't see it. Here's what I can say with certainly - no seats in the Roanoke area will change parties. Morgan Griffith wins huge, Bill Cleaveland wins by a surprising margin and Onzlee Ware wins in typical fashion. I'll post some number predictions on these races later.
I think the Dems are left with 1 pickup opportunity in the Western half of the state, 2 or 3 in NOVA and 1 in Hampton Roads. Republicans have as many as 5 shots in NOVA, 3 or 4 in HR and a couple more throughout the state.
My premature prediction - Republicans +4.
Like I said at the top. This was just for fun and a lot could change. Some of what I've posted is based on polling data I've seen, some of it is based on coversations I've had and some of it is complete wild unfounded speculation. Now, if you're a Republican reading this, get back to work. If you're a Democrat, feel free to sit on the couch and watch TV.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Carter Turner Throws Creigh Deeds Under The Bus
Click here to read the story.
Frankly, in the 8th District, running away from Deeds is probably a good campaign strategy.
h/t notlarrysabato
Frankly, in the 8th District, running away from Deeds is probably a good campaign strategy.
h/t notlarrysabato
Friday, October 9, 2009
Roanoke Valley Association Of Realtors Endorses Morgan Griffith
Posting this with my Blackberry from Philly airport.
Add the RVAR to an already huge (and growing) list of groups and associations supporting Morgan. Follow the link below to see a list of some of Morgan's other supporters.
http://roanokevalleyrepublicans.blogspot.com/2009/10/virginia-society-for-human-life.html
Add the RVAR to an already huge (and growing) list of groups and associations supporting Morgan. Follow the link below to see a list of some of Morgan's other supporters.
http://roanokevalleyrepublicans.blogspot.com/2009/10/virginia-society-for-human-life.html
Thursday, October 8, 2009
NRA Ad In Virginia
The NRA is up with an ad supporting McDonnell. Frankly, the ad left me a little speechless (although it also left me chuckling) so I'll just post it and let you decide.
Carter Turner At Salem Rotary
I attended the Salem Rotary lunch today as a guest of a good friend of mine and Carter Turner was the speaker. It would be inappropriate for me, as a guest, to go into great detail, but I'll say one thing. If Carter had given the speech he gave today from Day 1 of his campaign then he and I could have been buddies. Frankly, it's what I expected of him when he got in rather than what we've seen/heard for the last couple months. Hopefully this new tone is permanent. If it is (and we'll probably know tonight at the Bent Mtn forum) then I don't think I'll be talking about him much more. Still no issues beyond the superficial level but that's okay. It wasn't a forum for deep policy discussion. FWIW, food was surprisingly good. Well done Salem Catering.
Morgan Griffith is apparently speaking at Salem Rotary in a couple weeks.
Morgan Griffith is apparently speaking at Salem Rotary in a couple weeks.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Big Day Coming for Walker for Commissioner
I learned today that the Walker for Commissioner Campaign has secured 2 very BIG ENDORSEMENTS. These endorsements will show the voters how hard Douglas has been working and that the citizens recognize a need for change. Stay Tuned....This is VERY EXCITING!
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Interesting Trend To Recent Comments On This Blog
Anyone who follows this blog closely knows that we've had a recent spike in pro-Carter Turner comments, many of them attacking me. That's all well and good. Frankly, one of the main reasons we allow anonymous commenting is so that we encourage more back and forth between people from all sides.
Having said that, I've noticed something very interesting. Almost all of the pro-Carter posts (with 1 exception) are coming from one place. Where is that?
Radford University.
Hmmm. Why would people at Radford University care about our little race in the 8th HOD?
Similarly, there was a LTE supporting Carter in this Sunday's Roanoke Times. Who wrote the LTE? A Radford University professor who has only just moved to Radford from Kansas.
Guess it's too bad Carter isn't running for student body president at Radford. Of course, when your campaign is built around your membership on your high school football team, it kind of seems like you are.
Anyway, keep posting away Radford professors. And then on election day, remember, you don't live in Carter's district so don't write his name in on your ballot.
Having said that, I've noticed something very interesting. Almost all of the pro-Carter posts (with 1 exception) are coming from one place. Where is that?
Radford University.
Hmmm. Why would people at Radford University care about our little race in the 8th HOD?
Similarly, there was a LTE supporting Carter in this Sunday's Roanoke Times. Who wrote the LTE? A Radford University professor who has only just moved to Radford from Kansas.
Guess it's too bad Carter isn't running for student body president at Radford. Of course, when your campaign is built around your membership on your high school football team, it kind of seems like you are.
Anyway, keep posting away Radford professors. And then on election day, remember, you don't live in Carter's district so don't write his name in on your ballot.
Prominent Local Democrat Blasts Gwen Mason
I'm not naive. I realize sometimes politicians "nuance" their positions to get elected. With that said, the complete remaking of Gwen Mason's "core principles" in order to get elected to the HOD has been stunning to watch. I can't imagine what Dave Trinkle is thinking (and feeling) as Mason continues to stab him in the back over and over and over.
Click here to read a piece by a well known local Democrat completely tearing Mason apart.
Click here to read a piece by a well known local Democrat completely tearing Mason apart.
Monday, October 5, 2009
I Owe Carter Turner An Apology
Wow, this is just my week of apologies. First, I apologized to my buddies over at the Roanoke Times. Now I have to apologize to Carter. At least in Carter's case, he's in good company. Looks like lots of would-be politicians can't find the time to vote. Sorry, Carter.
Cleaveland Calls on Mason to Recant
Roanoke, VA—Bill Cleaveland, Republican candidate for the 17th House of Delegates seat has called on his opponent to condemn Governor Kaine in his handling of federal transportation stimulus funds. At the AARP debate that was held on Tuesday, September 29, Gwen Mason stated, “Governor Kaine, I think, has done a superior job of managing Virginia in extraordinarily difficult times.” She went on to say, “…and the reason I laud him for his efforts is that he did it strategically.” I disagreed with Mason’s assessment then, and I especially disagree with Kaine’s failure in leadership with regard to his handling of federal transportation stimulus money for Virginia, said Cleaveland.
According to a leader from his own party, Governor Kaine has done a poor job handling these transportation funds. I believe my opponent’s praise for Kaine certainly raises the question of “blind political expediency” on the part of Ms. Mason. My opponent likes to frame herself as an “independent,” but I suggested that her actions speak otherwise.
Mason has sought out and appeared with Kaine on more than one occasion during this campaign.
Bill Cleaveland cited an October 1 letter from one of Kaine’s fellow Democrats as evidence of the Governor’s poor performance. In a letter to Governor Kaine, James Oberstar, Chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure (D-MN), said this to the Governor…
“In August 2009, almost six months after enactment of the Recovery Act, I sent letters to the best and worst performers in putting to work Recovery Act highway funds. Since then, we have watched many States move aggressively to use these funds to create and sustain family-wage jobs, contribute to our nation's long-term economic growth, and help the United States recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Regrettably, Virginia is not among these States. Based on the State progress reports submitted to the Committee in September 2009, Virginia has fallen far behind other States in putting to work its Recovery Act highway formula funds. According to submissions received from all States and the District of Columbia, your State ranks last among all States(51 out of 51), based on an analysis of the percentage of Recovery Act highway formula funds put out to bid, under contract, and underway. As of August 31, Virginia had begun construction of projects totaling only 17 percent of the State's funding. I strongly urge you to refocus your efforts to implement the Recovery Act and use the available funds to create and sustain family-wage jobs. These jobs are critical to Virginia's and the nation's long-term economic growth.” (See attached letter for complete text.)
Cleaveland stated that for the Governor to neglect to fulfill his responsibilities to improve transportation and infrastructure, while ignoring the potential for jobs being created for Virginians by these projects, is nothing short of unbelievable. Then, for Gwen Mason to heap praise on the Governor for doing a “superior” job, shows she is looking through blinders that are too tight and that she is clearly not in sync with the voters of the 17th House of Delegates district.
“Today, I call on Ms. Mason to acknowledge to the people of this district that she was in error in assessing the Governor’s performance as “superior,” especially in light of this revelation from a fellow Democrat in Washington.”
Noting that transportation and jobs issues have been a part of his campaign issues since he announced, Cleaveland stated that he is ready to put his energies to work to actively address these pressing needs.
According to a leader from his own party, Governor Kaine has done a poor job handling these transportation funds. I believe my opponent’s praise for Kaine certainly raises the question of “blind political expediency” on the part of Ms. Mason. My opponent likes to frame herself as an “independent,” but I suggested that her actions speak otherwise.
Mason has sought out and appeared with Kaine on more than one occasion during this campaign.
Bill Cleaveland cited an October 1 letter from one of Kaine’s fellow Democrats as evidence of the Governor’s poor performance. In a letter to Governor Kaine, James Oberstar, Chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure (D-MN), said this to the Governor…
“In August 2009, almost six months after enactment of the Recovery Act, I sent letters to the best and worst performers in putting to work Recovery Act highway funds. Since then, we have watched many States move aggressively to use these funds to create and sustain family-wage jobs, contribute to our nation's long-term economic growth, and help the United States recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Regrettably, Virginia is not among these States. Based on the State progress reports submitted to the Committee in September 2009, Virginia has fallen far behind other States in putting to work its Recovery Act highway formula funds. According to submissions received from all States and the District of Columbia, your State ranks last among all States(51 out of 51), based on an analysis of the percentage of Recovery Act highway formula funds put out to bid, under contract, and underway. As of August 31, Virginia had begun construction of projects totaling only 17 percent of the State's funding. I strongly urge you to refocus your efforts to implement the Recovery Act and use the available funds to create and sustain family-wage jobs. These jobs are critical to Virginia's and the nation's long-term economic growth.” (See attached letter for complete text.)
Cleaveland stated that for the Governor to neglect to fulfill his responsibilities to improve transportation and infrastructure, while ignoring the potential for jobs being created for Virginians by these projects, is nothing short of unbelievable. Then, for Gwen Mason to heap praise on the Governor for doing a “superior” job, shows she is looking through blinders that are too tight and that she is clearly not in sync with the voters of the 17th House of Delegates district.
“Today, I call on Ms. Mason to acknowledge to the people of this district that she was in error in assessing the Governor’s performance as “superior,” especially in light of this revelation from a fellow Democrat in Washington.”
Noting that transportation and jobs issues have been a part of his campaign issues since he announced, Cleaveland stated that he is ready to put his energies to work to actively address these pressing needs.
Douglas Walker Working Hard for Your Vote
In an article on Sunday The Roanoke Times talks about how hard Douglas Walker is working for your vote. They also illustrate the factual reasons why Roanoke City needs a change in the Commissioner of Revenue office.
Sherman Holland the current Commissioner who has stopped all auditing of his office says in the article
When I asked Douglas Walker about this quote he reminded me that he is not the one saying they are doing a sub-par job the city auditor is.
Sherman Holland the current Commissioner who has stopped all auditing of his office says in the article
If you are in sales Holland clearly does not value your occupation and does not want your vote."I think people's credentials will speak for themselves. You've got a total
stranger -- a salesman, he's not from Roanoke -- trying to come in here and
tell us how to run our house, with no credentials or experience.
"I think we do an incredible job," Holland said. "For anyone to suggest that we're
not, I think is inaccurate."
When I asked Douglas Walker about this quote he reminded me that he is not the one saying they are doing a sub-par job the city auditor is.
The Virginia Society for Human Life Political Action Committee (VSHL PAC) endorses Bill Cleaveland
Bill Cleaveland has received the endorsement from The Virginia Society for Human Life Political Action Committee (VSHL PAC).
In a letter to Bill the VSHL says
Bill is clearly the candidate in this race who is committed to defending Pro-Life values.
In a letter to Bill the VSHL says
"You have shown a commitment to advancing and defending pro-life principles
once elected, which has earned you the support of voters who are concerned with
the right to life and the protection of the most vulnerable members of the human
family.
We wish you success in your campaign and look forward to
working with you in the years ahead in the tradition of Virginia’s own Thomas
Jefferson, who wrote, “The care of human life and happiness, and not their
destruction, is the chief and only legitimate object of good government.”"
Bill is clearly the candidate in this race who is committed to defending Pro-Life values.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Bob Goodlatte - We Must Listen to the American People on Health Care Reform
Guest Post from Congressman Bob Goodlatte
This summer Democratic leaders in Congress introduced H.R. 3200, the “America’s Affordable Health Choices Act”, which sets the tone for a Washington takeover of the health care system —one defined by federal regulation, mandates, a myriad of new big government programs, and a significant increase in federal spending and debt.
At least two different independent analyses of the House Democrats’ health care legislation, which I strongly oppose, estimate that more than 100 million Americans would lose their current health care coverage. In addition to losing their health insurance, Americans are going to lose control over their health care decisions. Under the Democrats’ vision, Washington would have ultimate control over what is best for patients, what treatments are acceptable, and how long patients wait for needed care.
Additionally, this misguided health care legislation is estimated to cost the federal government as much as $1.5 trillion. To pay for this massive new government expansion the legislation contains $820 billion in new job-killing tax increases imposed on certain income filers, a majority of whom are small businesses, even while the country remains in a serious recession.
Just a few weeks ago, I held a series of in-person town hall meetings, which were attended by over 1,500 folks from all across the 6th Congressional District. In addition, I conducted telephone town hall meetings which allowed me the opportunity to speak with over 25,000 of my constituents and answer their questions on health care reform. In all instances, we had very productive discussions regarding the current proposals being considered by Congress.
The majority of my constituents had the same questions and concerns that were raised at town hall meetings across the country. As I took questions at random, both in-person and over the telephone, I overwhelmingly heard folks express their opposition to the Democrats’ health care reform proposal. They were extremely concerned about the cuts to the Medicare program, the potential for a rationing of health care, the mandate that they carry health insurance, and the lack of choice.
In addition to taking questions, I invited everyone on my telephone town hall meeting to participate in a poll where I asked them ‘do you trust Washington bureaucrats to decide what health care benefits you will receive?’ Eighty-eight percent, an overwhelming majority, responded that they did not trust Washington bureaucrats to be making health care decisions for them.
While we can all agree that our current health care system is flawed there are many different ideas about how to fix it. Republicans have solutions that will empower patients with choices, make high quality coverage more affordable, and protect and preserve the doctor-patient relationship. The most important principles in health care reform are holding down costs and preserving consumer choices. We already spend far more per person than any other country in the world. Reform must be bipartisan and must mean using the health care dollars we now spend in a smarter, more effective way. We should be preserving and enhancing the ability of people to choose the plans that are tailored to their needs and the doctors that they trust to guide them, not putting more power in the hands of Washington bureaucrats.
This summer Democratic leaders in Congress introduced H.R. 3200, the “America’s Affordable Health Choices Act”, which sets the tone for a Washington takeover of the health care system —one defined by federal regulation, mandates, a myriad of new big government programs, and a significant increase in federal spending and debt.
At least two different independent analyses of the House Democrats’ health care legislation, which I strongly oppose, estimate that more than 100 million Americans would lose their current health care coverage. In addition to losing their health insurance, Americans are going to lose control over their health care decisions. Under the Democrats’ vision, Washington would have ultimate control over what is best for patients, what treatments are acceptable, and how long patients wait for needed care.
Additionally, this misguided health care legislation is estimated to cost the federal government as much as $1.5 trillion. To pay for this massive new government expansion the legislation contains $820 billion in new job-killing tax increases imposed on certain income filers, a majority of whom are small businesses, even while the country remains in a serious recession.
Just a few weeks ago, I held a series of in-person town hall meetings, which were attended by over 1,500 folks from all across the 6th Congressional District. In addition, I conducted telephone town hall meetings which allowed me the opportunity to speak with over 25,000 of my constituents and answer their questions on health care reform. In all instances, we had very productive discussions regarding the current proposals being considered by Congress.
The majority of my constituents had the same questions and concerns that were raised at town hall meetings across the country. As I took questions at random, both in-person and over the telephone, I overwhelmingly heard folks express their opposition to the Democrats’ health care reform proposal. They were extremely concerned about the cuts to the Medicare program, the potential for a rationing of health care, the mandate that they carry health insurance, and the lack of choice.
In addition to taking questions, I invited everyone on my telephone town hall meeting to participate in a poll where I asked them ‘do you trust Washington bureaucrats to decide what health care benefits you will receive?’ Eighty-eight percent, an overwhelming majority, responded that they did not trust Washington bureaucrats to be making health care decisions for them.
While we can all agree that our current health care system is flawed there are many different ideas about how to fix it. Republicans have solutions that will empower patients with choices, make high quality coverage more affordable, and protect and preserve the doctor-patient relationship. The most important principles in health care reform are holding down costs and preserving consumer choices. We already spend far more per person than any other country in the world. Reform must be bipartisan and must mean using the health care dollars we now spend in a smarter, more effective way. We should be preserving and enhancing the ability of people to choose the plans that are tailored to their needs and the doctors that they trust to guide them, not putting more power in the hands of Washington bureaucrats.
Roanoke Valley Blog Post Of The Year
Our crazy, socialist, tree hugging, traditional values hating pal Hank Bostwick over at Star City Harbinger has just posted what is without question the best blog post of the year in these parts. I encourage you all to click here and check it out.
In addition to being the post of the year, it also includes the photoshop of the year. Well done sir. Well done.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Huge High School Football Game This Friday
If you're a football fan, I encourage you to come to Salem Stadium Friday night for the Salem v. William Fleming game. These are arguably the best 2 teams in Timesland and they're both undefeated so far. This is usually a great game and this year's addition has the makings of a classic. For those of you who don't usually come to Salem games, get there early.
Virginia Society For Human Life Endorses Morgan Griffith
Big week for R endorsements in this neck of the woods. Bill Cleaveland gets endorsed by the Realtors and Morgan gets endorsed by the Virginia Society for Human Life.
For other recent posts regarding Morgan's broad support, follow the links below.
Humane Society Legislator of the Year
National Rifle Association
Virginia Association Endorsements
National Federation of Independent Business
For other recent posts regarding Morgan's broad support, follow the links below.
Humane Society Legislator of the Year
National Rifle Association
Virginia Association Endorsements
National Federation of Independent Business
Realtors Endorse Cleaveland
The Roanoke Valley Association of Realtors endorsed Bill Cleaveland yesterday. The group focuses on property rights, transportation, and economic development. It is clear that Bill's common sense plan for the 17th is what this area needs and after interviews with both candidates the Realtors agreed as well.
See Roanoke Times:
http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/220928
To see the clear differences in candidates come tonight to the Mount Pleasant Elementary School at 7pm as they debate the issues.
See Roanoke Times:
http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/220928
To see the clear differences in candidates come tonight to the Mount Pleasant Elementary School at 7pm as they debate the issues.
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