House Of Delegates Preview - 8th District (Part 3) - Prediction Time

Alright, I've wasted enough time and brain cells discussing the makeup and history of the 8th District. If you're a numbers geek like me, click here for Part 1 of my 8th District preview and here for Part 2 of the preview.

Let me start with a few words about Carter Turner's campaign. Carter has personally worked very hard and he should be commended for that. He hasn't worked as hard as Morgan but no one will ever outwork Morgan. Carter has also spent a lot of money. Check out his numbers and remember that he only declared his candidacy 3 months ago. On a month to month basis, Carter is actually spending more money in the 8th than Morgan.

With the niceties done, here are the problems.

• First, no Democrat is going to win the 8th as currently configured.
• Second, no Democrat will ever beat Morgan.
• Third, Carter picked a terrible message. There are ways to soften Morgan up but "not for sale" was the wrong horse. Same thing I told Sam Rasoul when he essentially used that theme last year. Maybe if Carter had a better staff or more experience his message would have been better.
• Fourth, this is a terrible year to be a Democrat.
• Fifth, Carter ticked off a lot of Salemites (can't speak to those in the County) with the nastiness of his message and some of the tactics of his supporters (he should really have a long talk with his sign lady who I won't name so as not to embarrass her).

Punchline is, Carter has done nothing to change the dynamics of the district. On the other hand though, Morgan has done nothing to run up the score. Believe me, he could have spent six figures on TV and radio but he chose to spend that money more efficiently to help expand the Republican majority in the House. As a result, while he wins handily, he'll under perform what he could have done had his singular goal been to run up the score.

Ultimately, I think Bob McDonnell gets about 56% in Virginia which means he'll break 60% in the 8th. The worst a statewide R has done in recent memory is +5 against his statewide total. That puts McDonnell at 61% which I think is about right. Based on all of this, I predict...

Morgan Griffith wins 62%-38%