I intended to post a preview of the 8th HOD race last week at the same time I did the 11th and 17th. However, several factors have caused the delay, most significant of which has been the incredible movement of the statewide polling numbers in the Republicans' favor.
If you read my statewide prediction post (here) you see that I predicted the Republicans to win by between 2 and 8 points statewide. Since that prediction, it is looking more and more likely that the statewide races will finish as double digit victories for the Rs and this will obviously impact the Delegate races. As such, I'm may re-evaluate my numbers in the 11th and 17th (but not the winner) and am not going to post my number in the 8th today (you'll have to wait for Part 2). Instead, I'll briefly discuss the makeup of the District.
The 8th is thought of as a Salem District but it's really 30% Salem and 70% Roanoke County. The County portion includes precincts in North County, West County and Southwest County. The County portion is very Republican, conservative, middle class and white. The County precincts voted overwhelmingly for McCain as they do for almost all Republicans.
Frankly, the 8th is an R district mainly because of the County. Salem, while pretty conservative, is not a Republican jurisdiction per se. In fact, Tim Kaine, Mike Breiner and Mark Warner all won Salem. I usually tell people that Salemites will vote for the candidate that is viewed as more competent. Rs will do well in Salem this year but not nearly as well as they'll do in the County.
The voting history of the 8th is very similar to that of the 17th and is much less Republican than the 11th is Democratic. In non-Presidential elections, the Rs run between 5-9 points higher in the 8th than they do statewide. That number may be a little higher this year.
As a result, I see the R statewide candidates getting between 61-64. Putting that in context, no non-Presidential Republican candidate has gotten higher than 59% in recent years.
The summary is that things are looking better and better statewide and in the 8th for the Rs. All Rs will win big here, it's just a question of by how much. I'll post an actual number prediction for the 8th soon and will discuss the basis for my prediction in more detail.
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1 comments:
Thanks for explaining all the ends and outs of the 17th and 8th districts---it is amazing, how "history" will basically repeat itself...( until last years presidential election,)--- you could come real close to figuring out who would win each race.
Also another exception, of history not repesting itself, was where Brandon Bell lost to Ralph Smith in the GOP primary in 2007. ( That was a darn shame, and we will continue to pay for that choice)
So how about giving your take on the Roanoke County's Supervisors races...I know, you all are not as familiar with this area of Roanoke, but you also have been exposed to a lot of the political views and information on all the local candidates.
Beside, you have hit the target in the past elections, why not give this a try too?
As always, great website, with excellent commentary.
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