Now that we're a few days post-election, it's time to look back and identify some winners and losers. I'm posting these off the top of my head and I'm sure I'll leave someone out or get something wrong. Comments are of course welcome. Here goes.
WINNERS
Bob Goodlatte
Not only did Congressman Goodlatte DESTROY his challenger but he ran up numbers that will make 6th District Dems think again before they challenge him in 2010.
Mark Warner
Like him or not, he's proven to be a great politician and he simply ran up the score against Gilmore.
DPVA
When your party wins the Presidential race, holds both Senate seats and steals 3 Congressional seats, you simply have to call it a win. Let's see if that momentum translates into 2009.
Local Republican Committees
We may have lost the war (President) but we won a heck of a lot of battles. Our memberships have swollen to record levels, our organizations are strong and, locally, we ran up huge numbers.
Morgan Griffith
The Dems have been salivating at the chance to run against Morgan Griffith. Well they can forget about it. Morgan's district went over 60% for McCain and the organization supporting him is unprecedented. He is untouchable in 2009.
Sarah Palin
I don't know what her future holds but, locally, she's a rock star. Anyone that can draw 16,000+ in Salem is doing something right.
LOSERS
Jim Gilmore
I'm sorry but when a former Attorney General and Governor get slaughtered this bad there's simply no postive way to spin it (and I'm not about to try).
Sam Rasoul
This blog has been tough on Sam but he's a nice guy. That said, he spent literally 2 years of his life running for this spot and he didn't even get 37%. That's simply embarrassing. We're hearing rumblings about Sam potentially running locally in 2009 but this blowout should make him think again.
David Bowers/Court Rosen/John Fishwick/Onzlee Ware, etc.
Basically, any local Democrat who was thinking about targetting Bob Goodlatte in 2010. You may do better than Mr. Rasoul but Goodlatte is simply unbeatable.
RPV
I hate to say this but we remain a mess statewide. For the same reasons the DPVA is a winner, the RPV is a loser. I'll leave it at that.
Okay, I'm sure I missed some so fire away.
Friday, November 7, 2008
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32 comments:
As far as the local committees go, Salem and Roanoke City are looking good. Roanoke County needs new leadership. You can stack your committee with every dem in the world and add 200 members, but if the committee is completely disorganized and none of the members participate, what is the point? As for Botetourt, well...
Rasoul would be lucky to see 37% in the 'rumored' '09 race. Look at how Goodlatte did in those precincts.
Did you leave anything out? Hmmm...I thought Obama could be considered a winner.
Anon 11:31 is right and I should add another winner - William Fralin.
Anon 11:36 - I didn't include Obama because I was talking more locally. In fact, locally his numbers were terrible. Clearly he's the biggest winner overall but that wasn't the point of the post. I only included Palin because of her local influence (as opposed to Obama/Biden who, in 3 combined visits drew less than half of what Palin drew in 1).
You probably need to throw Chairman Frederick in the Loser category. For Virginia to go Blue for Pres. for the first time since 1964 and your US Senate candidate to barely outpoll Marice Dawkins of 1988 is imbarrassing. State Central and McDonnell/Bolling need to do some serious soul searching concerning the RPV Chairman.
Brandon - I had a line in about Frederick which I deleted. That's why I said "I'll just leave it at that" after my RPV section. Suffice it to say, I've been disappointed.
Southwest Virginia is another big loser. By voting more or less as it did in 2004, and in some cases with a bigger margin for McCain, the region has revealed itself as out of touch with the rest of Virginia and the nation. The fact that SWVA's votes did not affect the outcome of Virginia's vote portends increasing political irrelevance.
Anon 12:29 it appears that you think people in all regions of Virgina have the same issues and should vote the same way. I think you are the one out of touch.
Warner is not only U.S. Senator-elect from Virginia, but he also won the 6th District. He won roughly 58 percent of the vote in the previously thought to be untouchably red district. Approximately 68,000 of the voters who voted for Warner, voted for Goodlatte (not Rasoul). A viable Democratic candidate who could obtain a little more than half that difference would have beaten Goodlatte. Given the right candidate, those who are not enthused with the present mediocre congressman (but were understandably skeptical of Rasoul) could well express their dissatisfaction. Goodlatte is clearly beatable.
I would add a little to my last comment. If the Democrats want to assure beating Goodlatte, they should do as follows. Let Mark Warner hand pick anybody he wants to be the 6th district nominee with the proviso that he strongly and frequently publicly endorse that candidate as somebody he needs to help him in Congress as well as to lend his rock star status to with a half dozen or so joint appearances in the 2010 cycle. Goodlatte is toast if they do.
Anon-
Now I know why you don't post your name. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Warner won on his own merits against a weaker candidate with no money. His endorsement of a dem against Bob would not be enough to beat our congressman who has worked hard for the 6th district.
I will grant you that Warner's opponent was weak--so was Goodlatte's. I maintain that with a strong Democratic candidate and with a strong endorsement and involvement by Warner (as well as the state and federal party establishment), Goodlatte is vulnerable. Warner demonstrated that there are a sufficient number of generally/previously Republican voters in the district who will consider a qualified Democratic candidate; yes, even vote for a qualified Democratic candidate. I believe we witnessed some component of Warner’s impact in the 5th District this time. We can see a similar effect in the 6th District next time with a strong candidate. But then this is admittedly an empirical matter--we shall see in 2010 .
What will keep Goodlatte safe is the fact that he doesn't take re-election for granted. He ran an excellent camapaign, both on the media and grassroots fronts. Though most of us thought Rasoul was a joke of a candidate, Goodlatte never overlooked him. That showed on election day.
Thank you for calling out Bowers and Rosen. Hilarious!
Brandon bell, sir, you cannot even spell 'embarassment' properly.
Both Chairman Frederick and Brandon Bell are a joke. talk about a couple of guys with big egos. Ralph Smith is a one of the least bright politicians in VA...but he is an improvement over Brandon Bell. Bell is a proven loser. Frederick is well on his way. Smith's abysmal performance in winning almost make him a loser as well.
None of these guys have a clue what needs to be done to get our party headed back in the right direction. Egos, winers, idiotic statements, bad faces for the party. We can do better.
Anon 11:05,
The blogging world is wonderful to be attacked by the spineless who hide behind anonymous posts. I would love to hear your "solution" to what ails the Republican Party. Oh wait did i spell ails correctly?
Oh really wait a minute--are you really David Nixon anon 11:05--the saviour of the Party as we know it?
A good place for republicans to start rebuilding is to avoid promising limited government and then doing the exact opposite in office. Instead of government coercing business on issues like smoking bans, let free people make decisions for themselves. The market is working.
Anon 1:23
Thanks for letting me know where you were coming from on your criticism.
Never knew however that a principle of "limited government" was avoiding protections from things that can kill us. Guess we can do away with our Commonwealths Attorney's offices. They are paid through tax dollars right?
That is the most idiotic thing i've ever heard. I have a choice whether or not I go into a smoking establishment. I know the risk going in, I don't have a choice whether someone hits me over the head at an atm, breaks into my house and kills me while I sleep, or kills me because they were driving drunk.
Anons 4:59/5:49 - I don't understand how you can think that Goodlatte is vulnerable. He was THE top vote getter in the 6th CD (192k for Goodlatte, 182k for Warner and McCain) and his race was at the bottom of the ticket. Obama had more field staff and more paid “volunteers” than any Democrat ever has had out this way and will ever have again. If you think any congressional candidate, Democrat or Republican, could afford even a small portion of that, you are dreaming. Obama had a 5 to 1 TV/radio advantage over McCain that was nothing but “Republicans are bad,” “Republicans are evil.” Mark Warner outspent Gilmore 10 to 0 on TV/radio bashing Republicans. On the evening news it was typically 5 Democratic commercials attacking Republicans to one commercial for a Republican candidate. That overwelming paid media advantage had an impact in a year where the Democrats had the strongest wind EVER at their backs, even stronger than in the post Watergate years. According to the Rasoul campaign, he started running radio ads in September, knocked on 100,000 doors, and ran the “most aggressive” grassroots campaign ever in the 6th CD. He raised and spent over $400k. Plus, the DCCC ran $500K in TV/radio ads against Virgil Goode in the shared TV markets of Roanoke/Lynchburg/Charlottesville that attacked “Our Congressman” for a bunch of things and only at the end did they identify that it was Congressman Goode, not Goodlatte (which many casual observers probably got confused by and didn’t know the difference between Goode and Goodlatte). After all of the Obama/Warner/DNC/DCCC money advantage, the worst year EVER to run as a Republican, and with Goodlatte being the ONLY candidate on the ballot running for re-election in a year where it was horrible to run as an incumbent he still got more votes than both Warner and McCain, had the highest percentage of the overall vote, and had one of the largest margins of victory of any contested race in the state. If you think Goodlatte is vulnerable after winning 62% this year, in this environment, I have a great piece of oceanfront property in Arizona I want to sell you.
Anon-2:13
What about the pregnant 22 year old mother working in the smoking section of a restaurant. With no other job skills to seek other employment what choice does the baby have? An eight hour shift equals two packs of cigs a day.
Hey are you a pure libertarian? Do you think a business should allow patrons to snort cocaine on their premises. Doing so wouldn't affect anyone else but the patron. Seems currently we would lock up a lot of people if they did.
Again, government is not necessary and good effort plucking the heart strings. That 22 year old mom can find another job at a nonsmoking restaurant or can explain the situation to he employer and ask to work the nonsmoking section of a restaurant. It seems a compromise between employer and employee is preferable to more government intervention in our lives.
If cocaine was legal--legal being the operative word here--and a restaurant owner chose to allow people to do so, more power to them. If I thought some whack job hopped up on blow posed a threat to my health, I would choose not to go to that restaurant.
The point is, smoking is LEGAL. As such, it should be up to the owner of the restaurant, not some government regulator to determine whether individuals can smoke inside that establishment.
The election results show that many Americans would rather have government make decisions for them, so maybe if you try getting elected again you can absolve Virginians of responsibility for one more decision they should be making for themselves.
The numbers you present for Goodlatte and Warner would indicate (not surprisingly) that the majority Republican electorate would forgive an incompetent Republican (Gilmore) to a slightly greater extent than embrace an unqualified Democrat (Rasoul). The fact that a popular Democrat (Warner) had poll numbers approaching an entrenched Republican (Goodlatte) is very good news for Democrats in the 6th. It would appear that approximately 19,000 (the difference between Obama's and Rasoul's numbers) Democrats voted for Goodlatte. A qualified Democrat would have likely taken these. Then we're to a 10-point race. A qualified Democrat plus a warm and continued endorsement from Warner and financial assistance from the state and federal parties may well be the ticket. Goodlatte is a virtual target named "Next Goode."
If you think the 5th is still like the 6th and Goodlatte is anything like Goode, then you've just betrayed your own ignorance. Good luck in 2010.
Anon 6:40pm - I think you missed my point. In the WORST ENVIRONMENT EVER for a GOP incumbent candidate Goodlatte STILL got 62% and was the top vote getter, beating out both a PRES and SEN candidate. The fact is that M. Warner ran against an incompetent and hated GOP candidate who even the bulk of his party did not like, outspent him $5 million to $500,000, and ran as a Republican-lite candidate out our way. Goodlatte is well liked and well respected by a lot of Democrats and Independents in the 6th and is not radio-active like Gilmore was. If you think a good DEM candidate and a bunch of DCCC and DNC money is going to take him out, I encourage you to call every DEM in the country and BEG for them to pour money into the 6th. Every dollar they waste here trying to take out a popular, well-liked, well respected and hard working congressman is a dollar they are not going to have to defend races like Periello's and Nye's. Does anyone honestly believe that Perriello is not going to be in a real fight in 2 years when he is not going to be able to hang onto Obama's and Warner's coatails and is going to have to run against a GOP candidate who run a real camapign? Please, pretty please, have the DCCC and DNC dump a ton of money here in the 6th, pick up MAYBE 2% points and lose the 5th and 2nd CDs back into GOP hands. As to your point about a strong endorsement from Warner, how many times were Warner and Rasoul at the same events, onstage with Obama, Clinton, Biden, etc? How many Obama/Warner/Rasoul signs where there all across the district. How many Warner/Rasoul ticket signs that were "paid for by botetourt DEM" were in people's yards. Rasoul even put in his mail piece that he had Warner's endorsement. I dont think a few more stops by Warner would cause the 6th to throw out Goodlatte.
Sam, don't post anon on this blog. we'd like to be able to attribute your comments to you in the future.. And buy a neck tie for God sakes..
Let me make one more comment for our anonymous posting friend who thinks Bob Goodlatte is vulnerable based on Virgil Goode losing.
John McCain won the 5th Congressional District by 2%. John McCain won the 6th Congressional District by 15%.
Mark Warner won the 5th by an astonishing 30%. Mark Warner the 6th by 17%.
As you can see, the 6th is essentially +13 R when compared to the 5th. Put Perriello and Goode in the 6th and Goode wins by 13%. The fact is, it would take a tidal wave of historic proportions for any Dem to get within 15% of Goodlatte. Good luck in 2010.
Goodlatte is vulnerable simply because he hasn't been a good Congressman. He represents big business and lobbyists. Even when his party was in power he did very little for the people of the district, who are only voting for him out of (a) habit, (b) name recognition, (c) xenophobia/bigotry, (d) conservative inbreeding, (e) all of the above. In the new Congress, Goodlatte will be even less effective. The need for better health care, more progressive social policies, stronger safety nets in the coming recession, will all make it clear to the people that they've made a mistake. Goodlatte's fall is coming.
Anon 911, you're a complete fool. Bring it on. The people of the 6th dist don't want socialized medicine, huge government, destruction of traditional values, and the other crap you guys offer.
These last two elections have been votes against Bush. Dems have simply repackaged the failed policies of the last 40 years as something new. I hope Obama governs like people voted for his policies proposals...we'll win everything back in 4 years. And Goodlatte will get 70+ percent.
Looks like my Republican party has fallen apart...really sad. Yes we defeated Sam Rasoul. We are being jerks. Thats why we lost...please fix this so Terry McAuliffe is not our next Governor. You all need to just get over the loss and figure out how we win in 2009. Congrats Congressman Goodlatte. Everyone else, Happy Thanksgiving.
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