A lot of bandwith has already been expended dissecting the McDonnell win and the implosion of the Democratic House of Delegates caucus. It has long been thought that Gubernatorial winners in Virginia had very short coattails, if any. This year was clearly the exception.
As everyone knows by now, Republicans knocked off 8 Democratic HOD incumbents. Thanks to a new map from the folks at VPAP, it is now easier than ever to see how statewide folks did on a district by district level. I took a look at McDonnell's numbers in the 8 races where D incumbents lost and, frankly, I was stunned.
The Republican challengers' margin of victory average was 7.19% in these 8 races. McDonnell's margin of victory in these 8 districts was a whopping 17.54%. Meaning that, on average, McDonnell ran 10%+ ahead of these victorious R challengers.
Looking at a couple up close, there's simply no conclusion you can come to other than McDonnell personally pulled, at a minimum, 4 seats to the R column.
In the 51st, Anderson won by 1% while McDonnell won by 12%.
In the 21st, Villanueva won by 0.1% while McDonnell won by 19%.
In the 23rd, Garrett won by 1% while McDonnell won by 19%.
In the 34th, Comstock won by 1% while McDonnell won by 7%.
In these 4 races, the R victory averaged less than 1% whereas McDonnell carried these districts by an average of 14%+. In the 21st and 23rd, Villanueva and Garrett won while running an incredible 18%+ behind the top of the ticket.
In the other 4 races (67th, 83rd, 3rd and 32nd), McDonnell ran way ahead of the R challenger but the R challenger margin was solid enough that you could at least argue the victory was more than just coattails.
Punchline, I believe the 4 seats were won almost exclusively because of the blowout at the top of the ticket. Good news is we won the seats. Bad news is that these folks will run for re-election in 2011 without the benefit of McDonnell at the top of the ticket. Makes the upcoming redistricting all the more interesting.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Sarah Palin Coming To Roanoke (11/22/09)
As almost everyone has heard by now, Sarah Palin will be in Roanoke this weekend. Specifically, she'll be doing a book signing Sunday morning at the Barnes & Noble at Valley View Mall. They're anticipating such huge crowds that they've moved the start time up to 10:00 a.m. They'll begin passing out wristbands to the first 1,000 people at 6 a.m. A wristband guarantees you a signature. Get there early if you want to meet her.
Judging by the reception Governor Palin got last year in Salem, you can expect a HUGE crowd. Remember, over 16,000 people came out in the freezing cold to hear her speak the week before the election. She's such a "rock star" in this area that I named her one of our Local Winners last year following the election.
I recognize that Governor Palin is a relatively polarizing figure. She brings out strong emotions, good and bad, and I love that. Frankly, she's just interesting, no matter what you think about her. Sunday should be a lot of fun.
UPDATE - Word is that a wristband WILL NOT guarantee a signature. They'll stay and sign as long as possible though and try to get to everyone. In an attempt to expedite things, they are also saying there will not be photo ops. Trying to keep the line moving as fast as possible.
Judging by the reception Governor Palin got last year in Salem, you can expect a HUGE crowd. Remember, over 16,000 people came out in the freezing cold to hear her speak the week before the election. She's such a "rock star" in this area that I named her one of our Local Winners last year following the election.
I recognize that Governor Palin is a relatively polarizing figure. She brings out strong emotions, good and bad, and I love that. Frankly, she's just interesting, no matter what you think about her. Sunday should be a lot of fun.
UPDATE - Word is that a wristband WILL NOT guarantee a signature. They'll stay and sign as long as possible though and try to get to everyone. In an attempt to expedite things, they are also saying there will not be photo ops. Trying to keep the line moving as fast as possible.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Roanoke City Democratic Chair Not Running For Re-Election
According to Hank over at Star City Harbinger, Tony Reed, Roanoke City Democratic Chair, has decided not to run for re-election when the Committee reorganizes. Read the story here. While this doesn't directly impact me, I thought I'd throw my thoughts out there.
While I don't know Tony well enough yet to call him a friend, I have interacted with him on several occasions. I have seen him in political and social situations. As far as I'm concerned, Tony Reed strikes me as a complete class act. In each of our conversations, he has been courteous and professional and seems to get the big picture.
Being a local Committee chair is largely a thankless job. You spend hours working to advance your Party's agenda and most people have no idea what you're even doing. Making Tony's job even harder, he stepped into a contentious situation, had to fight factions within his own Party and ended up a Defendant in a criminal complaint this past election. If I were Tony, I'd have probably quit the moment that line was crossed.
I'll leave it to the Democrats to critique the success of Tony's time as Chair. There were certainly some high point and some low points. I'm also not passing judgment on the Reed/Powell confrontation. I wasn't there and have no idea what happened. What I do know is that Tony Reed strikes me as a gentlemen who is in it for the right reasons and, frankly, I'm a little sad to see him step away. His leaving is probably a good thing for "my team" but I'm not sure it's a good thing for the process. I'll be watching the Democratic reorganization closely to see which direction they now head.
While I don't know Tony well enough yet to call him a friend, I have interacted with him on several occasions. I have seen him in political and social situations. As far as I'm concerned, Tony Reed strikes me as a complete class act. In each of our conversations, he has been courteous and professional and seems to get the big picture.
Being a local Committee chair is largely a thankless job. You spend hours working to advance your Party's agenda and most people have no idea what you're even doing. Making Tony's job even harder, he stepped into a contentious situation, had to fight factions within his own Party and ended up a Defendant in a criminal complaint this past election. If I were Tony, I'd have probably quit the moment that line was crossed.
I'll leave it to the Democrats to critique the success of Tony's time as Chair. There were certainly some high point and some low points. I'm also not passing judgment on the Reed/Powell confrontation. I wasn't there and have no idea what happened. What I do know is that Tony Reed strikes me as a gentlemen who is in it for the right reasons and, frankly, I'm a little sad to see him step away. His leaving is probably a good thing for "my team" but I'm not sure it's a good thing for the process. I'll be watching the Democratic reorganization closely to see which direction they now head.
Friday, November 13, 2009
U.S. Military Is A Bunch Of Cowards Who Kill Innocent People
So says liberal Roanoke blogger Dan Smith. Folks, I was stunned when I read his post from yesterday.
The Roanoke Valley has a vibrant and diverse blogosphere. Most of us have great relationships with each other and we respect each other's differing perspectives. Frankly, Dan has every right to feel the way he does but I'm stunned that someone would not only think this way but put it out there for public consumption.
Now, while I respect Dan's right to have this opinion, I'm not going to lie to you - reading it made me sick. All of us know people who have literally given their lives so that Dan has the freedom to post his thoughts on his blog. His response? They're just cowards who kill innocent people.
Let me say one more thing - I am not implying for a second that Dan's opinions are held by all liberals/Democrats. I no more hold them responsible for his worldview than I expect to be held responsible for the views of the loonies on the Right. Having said that, there are Democratic candidates right here in the Roanoke Valley that embraced Dan and his blog and shouted his endorsement from the mountaintops this year. Wonder if they agree with him?
I have so many other thoughts going through my head right now that I think I'll just leave it there. I'd love to hear from others out there to find out what you think. Heck, maybe people agree with Dan and I'm in the minority. I doubt it but I'd love to find out.
- End Veteran's Day.
- Knock over War Memorials.
- Desecrate battlefields.
- War is easy and takes no sense or courage.
- U.S. military has killed "hundreds of thousands of people--most of them innocents."
The Roanoke Valley has a vibrant and diverse blogosphere. Most of us have great relationships with each other and we respect each other's differing perspectives. Frankly, Dan has every right to feel the way he does but I'm stunned that someone would not only think this way but put it out there for public consumption.
Now, while I respect Dan's right to have this opinion, I'm not going to lie to you - reading it made me sick. All of us know people who have literally given their lives so that Dan has the freedom to post his thoughts on his blog. His response? They're just cowards who kill innocent people.
Let me say one more thing - I am not implying for a second that Dan's opinions are held by all liberals/Democrats. I no more hold them responsible for his worldview than I expect to be held responsible for the views of the loonies on the Right. Having said that, there are Democratic candidates right here in the Roanoke Valley that embraced Dan and his blog and shouted his endorsement from the mountaintops this year. Wonder if they agree with him?
I have so many other thoughts going through my head right now that I think I'll just leave it there. I'd love to hear from others out there to find out what you think. Heck, maybe people agree with Dan and I'm in the minority. I doubt it but I'd love to find out.
Kaine turns his back on Virginians
I was listening to the news this morning on 960AM and they said that Gov. Kaine was out of the state attending Democrat Fundraisers in TN and LA yesterday while people here at home we struggling with rising waters from the rain. Luckily he is going to come to VA today.
I cannot wait for VA to have a full time Governor again.
I cannot wait for VA to have a full time Governor again.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Roanoke City Council Candidates
We are about 6 months away from Roanoke City Council elections. First I would like to offer some speculation on who may be running as an I or D.
Incumbents:
Dave Trinkle
Gwen Mason
Rupert Cutler
Newcomers:
Mike Hamler- his name keeps coming up. I actually know him a little but I have not heard from him on this.
Little Richie Cranwell
Valerie Garner
Mark Powell
Sherman Lea Jr.
Hank Bostwick- since he is stepping away from his blog he either has his eyes on this or something else that I am sure will be interesting.
Second I would like our readers to throw out other names they are hearing and to also give us names of people that we should consider running. There has been a lot of interest but a competitive race will produce the best product.
Incumbents:
Dave Trinkle
Gwen Mason
Rupert Cutler
Newcomers:
Mike Hamler- his name keeps coming up. I actually know him a little but I have not heard from him on this.
Little Richie Cranwell
Valerie Garner
Mark Powell
Sherman Lea Jr.
Hank Bostwick- since he is stepping away from his blog he either has his eyes on this or something else that I am sure will be interesting.
Second I would like our readers to throw out other names they are hearing and to also give us names of people that we should consider running. There has been a lot of interest but a competitive race will produce the best product.
2009 Election - Roanoke Valley Numbers
For those of you who don't like numbers, I apologize in advance. As for me, I'm fascinated by political numbers. Polling numbers, fundraising numbers, voting numbers, etc.
To put a final ribbon on Election 2009, I thought I'd look at the total numbers for the Roanoke Valley (Roanoke County, Roanoke City and Salem). Every single voter in the Roanoke Valley had at least 4 lines on their ballot this year - Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Delegate. There were of course lots of other local races but the 4 above cover the whole Valley.
Totalling up the numbers for the Roanoke Valley, here's what you get.
Governor - Bob McDonnell 61%-39% (35,252 to 22,739)
Lieutenant Governor - Bill Bollling 60%-40% (34,103 to 23,248)
Attorney General - Ken Cuccinelli 61%-39% (35,167 to 22,141)
House of Delegates - Republicans 60%-40% (34,238 to 23,110)
In 2005 (statewide) and 2007 (State Senate) Democrats ran almost even with Republicans in the Roanoke Valley. This year, Republicans had a 20%+ margin at every level. Obviously national and statewide factors come into play but I think the 2 most significant local factors are 1) great candidates and 2) the size, strength and stability of the 3 local Republican units relative to their Democratic counterparts. This bodes very well for Bob Goodlatte in 2010 and Ralph Smith, Morgan Griffith and Bill Cleaveland in 2011.
To put a final ribbon on Election 2009, I thought I'd look at the total numbers for the Roanoke Valley (Roanoke County, Roanoke City and Salem). Every single voter in the Roanoke Valley had at least 4 lines on their ballot this year - Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Delegate. There were of course lots of other local races but the 4 above cover the whole Valley.
Totalling up the numbers for the Roanoke Valley, here's what you get.
Governor - Bob McDonnell 61%-39% (35,252 to 22,739)
Lieutenant Governor - Bill Bollling 60%-40% (34,103 to 23,248)
Attorney General - Ken Cuccinelli 61%-39% (35,167 to 22,141)
House of Delegates - Republicans 60%-40% (34,238 to 23,110)
In 2005 (statewide) and 2007 (State Senate) Democrats ran almost even with Republicans in the Roanoke Valley. This year, Republicans had a 20%+ margin at every level. Obviously national and statewide factors come into play but I think the 2 most significant local factors are 1) great candidates and 2) the size, strength and stability of the 3 local Republican units relative to their Democratic counterparts. This bodes very well for Bob Goodlatte in 2010 and Ralph Smith, Morgan Griffith and Bill Cleaveland in 2011.
Congressman Bob Goodlatte On Healthcare
Below are some thoughts Goodlatte posted about health care prior to Saturday's debate. On a side note, is there another Virginia Congressman that is more blog/new media friendly?
Friday, November 6, 2009
8th HOD Postmortem - Dispelling Some Myths
Well folks, the elections are over, life is returning to normal and it's time to do one last post on the 8th HOD race. We broke this race down in multiple posts pre-election and discussed yesterday why Morgan Griffith was a huge winner and Carter Turner was the loser. Frankly, I'm still stunned that Morgan got almost 70%, won every single precinct and didn't get below 61% in a single precinct. This was just a thorough butt kicking. With that said, I thought I'd talk about a few myths we're already hearing from the Dem side.
MYTHS
1) Morgan only won big because of the McDonnell tidal wave. Was Morgan aided by the positive Republican environment? Of course. However, he not only lead the entire ticket in percentage, he was actually the highest vote getter in the 8th (a rare feat for a down ballot candidate in a contested race). In fact, I'd argue that the opposite is true. I'd argue that Morgan's incredible strength and hard work in the 8th actually pulled the statewide folks up a couple points.
2) Carter only lost because Morgan outspent him. It is a fact that Morgan "outspent" Carter. HOWEVER, you have to look at the actual numbers. The fact is Morgan "spent" a large 6 figure number on other HOD races as part of his job as Majority Leader. When you just look at the money spent "in District" you see that it was very close. Furthermore, when you consider Carter spent all his money in the prime 3 months, you see Carter actually outspent Morgan during the true campaign.
3) Carter got into the race too late to have a chance. Carter got into the race in July. Is this ideal? Of course not. However, everyone knows that no one pays attention to any races, let alone local races, until after Labor Day. Carter got in well before Olde Salem Days which is really the unofficial kickoff to races in the 8th District. The same thing happened in Staunton and NOVA and the late arriving candidates (Surovell and Bell) both won easily.
4) Morgan swamped Carter with his campaign apparatus. Clearly Morgan knows how to run a good campaign. However, this year, he was so focused on picking up seats in the HOD that he didn't push as much in Salem. Don't get me wrong, Morgan personally worked incredibly hard. However, he didn't do any TV, only went on the radio in the last week, didn't mount an LTE writing campaign, etc. On the other hand, Carter was on TV and radio for weeks, had just about every Religion Professor at RU sending in LTEs, etc. The fact is Carter had the time, money and organization necessary to win and he just got swamped. The only place Morgan's apparatus really flexed its muscles was the overwhelming presence of workers on Election Day itself.
5) Randy Foley is relevant. Has there ever been a more clear rebuke of a sitting politician than the message Salem voters sent Randy Foley, the current Mayor and formerly closeted Democrat. Yes, Randy and Carter are friends but the fact is that Randy Foley is and always has been a Democrat and he has now exposed himself. He pushed hard for Carter and got completely slapped down. Now the interesting issue - Randy is up for re-election next year. I have heard from dozens of Salemites that are furious with him for his actions in this election. The question is whether it's worth the effort to take him out. Won't be hard if someone solid takes the plunge.
6) Carter Turner set himself up well for a future run. Is it possible that Carter has a future some day? Of course. Does he have a short term future? Absolutely not. Not only did he get destroyed but he made some serious tactical errors that infuriated many voters (and voters don't forget easily). His campaign message was offensive, his staff (especially his sign lady) caused major problems and he generally acquitted himself poorly. Frankly, Carter proved why people should think before jumping into something like this. If Carter had gotten in the race in May, surrounded himself with good people and worked hard, he could have saved face. Instead, he put himself one tiny notch above Gwen Mason on the future relevance scale.
7) Carter did well to get a few thousand votes. This is my favorite one so far. Carter is telling anyone who will listen that he polled the race early and out of 300+ people polled, only 7 knew his name so the fact that he got a few thousand votes is great. What he isn't saying is how many of those people would vote for a generic D, no matter what his name was. I have always believed that the 8th HOD has about 35% hard Ds that will vote for the Devil if he had a D by his name (and about 48% hard Rs that would do the same). As such, the silly poll Carter is quoting is meaningless. The fact is, if you'd polled 300+ people on Day 1 and asked them whether they'd vote for Morgan Griffith or generic D, I promise you Carter would have done better than the 30% he ended up with. The fact is that his terrible campaign actually cost him votes and the sooner he realizes that the better off he is.
Okay folks, that's all. Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong. Otherwise, no more posts about the 8th HOD race.
MYTHS
1) Morgan only won big because of the McDonnell tidal wave. Was Morgan aided by the positive Republican environment? Of course. However, he not only lead the entire ticket in percentage, he was actually the highest vote getter in the 8th (a rare feat for a down ballot candidate in a contested race). In fact, I'd argue that the opposite is true. I'd argue that Morgan's incredible strength and hard work in the 8th actually pulled the statewide folks up a couple points.
2) Carter only lost because Morgan outspent him. It is a fact that Morgan "outspent" Carter. HOWEVER, you have to look at the actual numbers. The fact is Morgan "spent" a large 6 figure number on other HOD races as part of his job as Majority Leader. When you just look at the money spent "in District" you see that it was very close. Furthermore, when you consider Carter spent all his money in the prime 3 months, you see Carter actually outspent Morgan during the true campaign.
3) Carter got into the race too late to have a chance. Carter got into the race in July. Is this ideal? Of course not. However, everyone knows that no one pays attention to any races, let alone local races, until after Labor Day. Carter got in well before Olde Salem Days which is really the unofficial kickoff to races in the 8th District. The same thing happened in Staunton and NOVA and the late arriving candidates (Surovell and Bell) both won easily.
4) Morgan swamped Carter with his campaign apparatus. Clearly Morgan knows how to run a good campaign. However, this year, he was so focused on picking up seats in the HOD that he didn't push as much in Salem. Don't get me wrong, Morgan personally worked incredibly hard. However, he didn't do any TV, only went on the radio in the last week, didn't mount an LTE writing campaign, etc. On the other hand, Carter was on TV and radio for weeks, had just about every Religion Professor at RU sending in LTEs, etc. The fact is Carter had the time, money and organization necessary to win and he just got swamped. The only place Morgan's apparatus really flexed its muscles was the overwhelming presence of workers on Election Day itself.
5) Randy Foley is relevant. Has there ever been a more clear rebuke of a sitting politician than the message Salem voters sent Randy Foley, the current Mayor and formerly closeted Democrat. Yes, Randy and Carter are friends but the fact is that Randy Foley is and always has been a Democrat and he has now exposed himself. He pushed hard for Carter and got completely slapped down. Now the interesting issue - Randy is up for re-election next year. I have heard from dozens of Salemites that are furious with him for his actions in this election. The question is whether it's worth the effort to take him out. Won't be hard if someone solid takes the plunge.
6) Carter Turner set himself up well for a future run. Is it possible that Carter has a future some day? Of course. Does he have a short term future? Absolutely not. Not only did he get destroyed but he made some serious tactical errors that infuriated many voters (and voters don't forget easily). His campaign message was offensive, his staff (especially his sign lady) caused major problems and he generally acquitted himself poorly. Frankly, Carter proved why people should think before jumping into something like this. If Carter had gotten in the race in May, surrounded himself with good people and worked hard, he could have saved face. Instead, he put himself one tiny notch above Gwen Mason on the future relevance scale.
7) Carter did well to get a few thousand votes. This is my favorite one so far. Carter is telling anyone who will listen that he polled the race early and out of 300+ people polled, only 7 knew his name so the fact that he got a few thousand votes is great. What he isn't saying is how many of those people would vote for a generic D, no matter what his name was. I have always believed that the 8th HOD has about 35% hard Ds that will vote for the Devil if he had a D by his name (and about 48% hard Rs that would do the same). As such, the silly poll Carter is quoting is meaningless. The fact is, if you'd polled 300+ people on Day 1 and asked them whether they'd vote for Morgan Griffith or generic D, I promise you Carter would have done better than the 30% he ended up with. The fact is that his terrible campaign actually cost him votes and the sooner he realizes that the better off he is.
Okay folks, that's all. Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong. Otherwise, no more posts about the 8th HOD race.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Local Winners And Losers From The 2009 Elections
As I did last year, I'm going to post the "winners" and "losers" from this year's election. Couple points. First, this focuses locally on the Roanoke Valley (so don't complaint that Christie isn't listed). Second, I attempted to do this objectively (to the extent I can). The winners are obviously much more Republican this year though. Anyway, here goes.
WINNERS
Bill Cleaveland
Bill is clearly the biggest winner. This was the only race that was supposed to be close and he ended up blowing out a very well funded and experienced opponent. Bill's victory was so complete that he even won Roanoke City where his opponent is an elected City Councilwoman.
Roanoke County Republican Committee
The results from Roanoke County are pretty amazing. The obvious that everyone will point to is that they swept all 3 BOS races. In addition though, Bill Cleaveland, Morgan Griffith and even Troy Bird ran up big numbers in their Roanoke County precincts. I encourage all of you to click here to go back to a discussion from June about whether Roanoke County was a Republican stronghold. Brian Lang, Roanoke County D Chair, tried to argue it was not and that he would prove it this November. Well Brian, I think we all have our answer now.
Morgan Griffith
I named Morgan a winner last year because of the strength of his District and the organization he had built. Apparently the Ds didn't believe me. Maybe they believe me now that he's blown out his opponent with almost 70%, won every single precinct and garnered more votes in the 8th than anyone else on the ballot. Add in the fact that his caucus is now 6 members larger and Tuesday was a big night for him.
Onzlee Ware
Onzlee won Tuesday on a night when 8 Democratic incumbents lost. That alone makes him a winner.
Octavia Johnson
Sheriff Johnson has now won 2 elections in Roanoke City as a Republican. Yes, I know her first opponent was a defendant in a high profile sexual harassment suit and this year her 2 opponents split the "anti-Octavia" vote. Still, it's unprecedented in recent years for an R to win once, let alone twice, so she's definitely a big winner.
David Trinkle and Court Rosen
David and Court were possible contenders for the 17th. For various reasons, they both passed and, in hindsight, were wise to have done so. They passed on a terrible year to run as a D and stayed above the fray. Unlike Mason (see below) they have not diminished themselves locally and still have political options.
Bob Goodlatte
Can't wait to see the sacrificial lamb the Ds come up with in 2010. Bob McDonnell won 67% in the District, even though it encompasses much of Deeds' Senate District. Good luck taking Goodlatte out this year.
Jay Warren
Jay moderated an AG primary Debate, a statewide televised Gubernatorial Debate and the only Lieutenant Governor Debate of the entire campaign. He also posed the question that put the final nail in the Deeds coffin - would you opt out of the public option? Jay received rave reviews for all of his work from both sidees. He was tough on all candidates and actually elicited some answers that went deeper than typical political talk. Only downside for Jay is that there aren't any statewide races for 2 years.
LOSERS
Gwen Mason
Just as Bill Cleaveland was the biggest winner, Gwen Mason is clearly the biggest loser. She had a ton of name recognition, experience and money and she got blown out by a political newcomer. She even lost Roanoke City. In the process, she destroyed her relationships with others on the Council and embarrassed herself in the community. She now has to be seriously concerned about her own re-election and, regardless, it's inconceivable that she'll ever rise above City Council.
Salem and Roanoke County Democrats
Notwithstanding Brian Lang's talk, local Democrats outside of the City got annihilated. They lost pretty much every single precinct in the statewide and Delegate races and lost all 3 BOS races in Roanoke County. I visited about 15 Salem/County precincts and they had almost zero presence at the polls. It was frankly embarrassing in Salem. The County Ds went through a bloody re-org recently but I'd suggest both the County and Salem do it again. Things clearly aren't working.
Onzlee Ware
Yes, he's a winner because he won. But let's be honest, Troy Bird had zero experience, zero money and zero name recognition. Nonetheless, Onzlee lost several precincts and barely got 60%. I don't know what effect Martin Jeffrey had on the race or how much Troy's performance was McDonnell's coattails but clearly Onzlee can't be comfortable today.
Carter Turner
I include Carter only because he barely broke 30%. Let me be clear, Carter tried hard and is a good guy. The problem is that he got terrible advice and I don't think he even saw the bus coming that ran him over. However, he's not a loser because he lost this race. That was inevitable. He's a loser here because his performance was so bad that he's not going to be a viable candidate for any other office for some time. Carter, unlike Gwen, however, still has a chance (albeit small) in the future.
Troy Bird
He outperformed expectations but, as the only Republican Delegate candidate in the area to lose, I simply have to include him here. However, he should be proud of what he accomplished and the message he sent.
Douglas Walker
Much like Troy, Douglas has to be included because he lost on a night most Rs won. Also, he dedicated his life (time and money) to this race so it hurts a little more. Still, his showing as an R running against an entrenched D in Roanoke City was impressive. He definitely has a future if he wants one.
Tom Perriello
Unlike many Rs I know, I have great respect for Tom Perriello. I think he's very smart and a fantastic politician. In fact, I've told many of my D friends that Perriello is a much stronger statewide candidate and, with their bench destroyed, they should start recruiting him for Gov in 2013. That said, his district went over 61% for McDonnell who even won Albemarle County (Perriello's stronghold). With Rs lining up to take him out, he has to be considered a loser.
Okay folks, that's my list. Remember, I only focused locally so I've left a lot of people out. I'm also sure I've forgotten some people so feel free to use the comment section to add names or call me a moron. That's what it's there for.
WINNERS
Bill Cleaveland
Bill is clearly the biggest winner. This was the only race that was supposed to be close and he ended up blowing out a very well funded and experienced opponent. Bill's victory was so complete that he even won Roanoke City where his opponent is an elected City Councilwoman.
Roanoke County Republican Committee
The results from Roanoke County are pretty amazing. The obvious that everyone will point to is that they swept all 3 BOS races. In addition though, Bill Cleaveland, Morgan Griffith and even Troy Bird ran up big numbers in their Roanoke County precincts. I encourage all of you to click here to go back to a discussion from June about whether Roanoke County was a Republican stronghold. Brian Lang, Roanoke County D Chair, tried to argue it was not and that he would prove it this November. Well Brian, I think we all have our answer now.
Morgan Griffith
I named Morgan a winner last year because of the strength of his District and the organization he had built. Apparently the Ds didn't believe me. Maybe they believe me now that he's blown out his opponent with almost 70%, won every single precinct and garnered more votes in the 8th than anyone else on the ballot. Add in the fact that his caucus is now 6 members larger and Tuesday was a big night for him.
Onzlee Ware
Onzlee won Tuesday on a night when 8 Democratic incumbents lost. That alone makes him a winner.
Octavia Johnson
Sheriff Johnson has now won 2 elections in Roanoke City as a Republican. Yes, I know her first opponent was a defendant in a high profile sexual harassment suit and this year her 2 opponents split the "anti-Octavia" vote. Still, it's unprecedented in recent years for an R to win once, let alone twice, so she's definitely a big winner.
David Trinkle and Court Rosen
David and Court were possible contenders for the 17th. For various reasons, they both passed and, in hindsight, were wise to have done so. They passed on a terrible year to run as a D and stayed above the fray. Unlike Mason (see below) they have not diminished themselves locally and still have political options.
Bob Goodlatte
Can't wait to see the sacrificial lamb the Ds come up with in 2010. Bob McDonnell won 67% in the District, even though it encompasses much of Deeds' Senate District. Good luck taking Goodlatte out this year.
Jay Warren
Jay moderated an AG primary Debate, a statewide televised Gubernatorial Debate and the only Lieutenant Governor Debate of the entire campaign. He also posed the question that put the final nail in the Deeds coffin - would you opt out of the public option? Jay received rave reviews for all of his work from both sidees. He was tough on all candidates and actually elicited some answers that went deeper than typical political talk. Only downside for Jay is that there aren't any statewide races for 2 years.
LOSERS
Gwen Mason
Just as Bill Cleaveland was the biggest winner, Gwen Mason is clearly the biggest loser. She had a ton of name recognition, experience and money and she got blown out by a political newcomer. She even lost Roanoke City. In the process, she destroyed her relationships with others on the Council and embarrassed herself in the community. She now has to be seriously concerned about her own re-election and, regardless, it's inconceivable that she'll ever rise above City Council.
Salem and Roanoke County Democrats
Notwithstanding Brian Lang's talk, local Democrats outside of the City got annihilated. They lost pretty much every single precinct in the statewide and Delegate races and lost all 3 BOS races in Roanoke County. I visited about 15 Salem/County precincts and they had almost zero presence at the polls. It was frankly embarrassing in Salem. The County Ds went through a bloody re-org recently but I'd suggest both the County and Salem do it again. Things clearly aren't working.
Onzlee Ware
Yes, he's a winner because he won. But let's be honest, Troy Bird had zero experience, zero money and zero name recognition. Nonetheless, Onzlee lost several precincts and barely got 60%. I don't know what effect Martin Jeffrey had on the race or how much Troy's performance was McDonnell's coattails but clearly Onzlee can't be comfortable today.
Carter Turner
I include Carter only because he barely broke 30%. Let me be clear, Carter tried hard and is a good guy. The problem is that he got terrible advice and I don't think he even saw the bus coming that ran him over. However, he's not a loser because he lost this race. That was inevitable. He's a loser here because his performance was so bad that he's not going to be a viable candidate for any other office for some time. Carter, unlike Gwen, however, still has a chance (albeit small) in the future.
Troy Bird
He outperformed expectations but, as the only Republican Delegate candidate in the area to lose, I simply have to include him here. However, he should be proud of what he accomplished and the message he sent.
Douglas Walker
Much like Troy, Douglas has to be included because he lost on a night most Rs won. Also, he dedicated his life (time and money) to this race so it hurts a little more. Still, his showing as an R running against an entrenched D in Roanoke City was impressive. He definitely has a future if he wants one.
Tom Perriello
Unlike many Rs I know, I have great respect for Tom Perriello. I think he's very smart and a fantastic politician. In fact, I've told many of my D friends that Perriello is a much stronger statewide candidate and, with their bench destroyed, they should start recruiting him for Gov in 2013. That said, his district went over 61% for McDonnell who even won Albemarle County (Perriello's stronghold). With Rs lining up to take him out, he has to be considered a loser.
Okay folks, that's my list. Remember, I only focused locally so I've left a lot of people out. I'm also sure I've forgotten some people so feel free to use the comment section to add names or call me a moron. That's what it's there for.
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